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Incumbency Factor Will Not Determine 2027 Election, Atiku, Obi, Others Talk Tough
The 2027 general elections will not be determined by incumbency, control of State power or wave of political defections, opposition leaders have declared.
They argued that voter choice, opposition unity, and the integrity of the electoral process would ultimately decide the outcome.
The opposition leaders made the declaration at the public launch of “The Loyalist,’’ a memoir by National Publicity Secretary of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, Bolaji Abdullahi, in Abuja.
The event drew a wide mix of opposition leaders, former public office holders, lawmakers, intellectuals and party stakeholders.
Speakers included former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar; former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi; former Minister of Interior and ADC National Secretary, Rauf Aregbesola; former Senate President and ADC National Chairman, David Mark, and veteran columnist and public intellectual, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, who reviewed the book.
Although convened as a book presentation, the gathering quickly assumed a strong political tone, with speakers repeatedly returning to the issues of opposition unity, leadership responsibility, and the limits of incumbency power, ahead of the next general election.
Addressing what he described as a growing misconception in Nigerian politics, Aregbesola argued that governors and incumbents do not automatically determine election outcomes.
Drawing on the 2023 electoral results, he said the belief that political office guaranteed victory was not supported by evidence.
“The fact that certain governors are defecting to the APC shows that our unity is weakened, but the statistics do not support the belief that governors win elections,” Aregbesola said.
Using the South-West as an example, he said ruling party dominance at the state level had not translated into overwhelming electoral success.
“In the South-West, the APC controlled all the states except one, yet the maximum performance of the party was 55 per cent, with the other parties sharing the rest,” he said.
On his part, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, speaking as special guest of honour, linked the political moment to the theme of the book, describing loyalty as both a moral test and a personal burden in public life.
Atiku, who noted that his participation was informed by his own role in the political history examined in the memoir, said: “I am honoured to be part of this launch because I was also involved in the eventual inauguration of the Bukola Saraki administration, which this book deals with in very great detail.’’
He praised the author for taking on difficult questions about loyalty and conscience, saying “this is a work that dares to question loyalties, illuminate conscience, and broaden our public imagination.’’
Drawing a contrast between military discipline and political life, Atiku said loyalty in politics was rarely absolute and often exacted a heavy price.
“For those of us who come from the military and paramilitary professions, loyalty is non-negotiable; there is only absolute obedience. But in political life, loyalty is not as rigid, and it comes with consequences,” he said.
The former vice president also spoke candidly about his own experiences.
“Many of us have suffered because of loyalty. I have faced exile as a result of loyalty. I have survived assassination attempts as a result of loyalty,” he said.
Atiku warned that loyalty should never become blind allegiance, adding that “loyalty should strengthen the common goal, not narrow the circle of belonging.’’
Similarly, a former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, who arrived late due to flight delays from Lagos, apologised for not observing traditional protocol before addressing the audience.
Obi also signalled political solidarity and regional commitment, saying: “I have been directed to represent the South-East, and I want to assure you that you will not be disappointed.’’
In one of the most direct political moments of the event, the author, Bolaji Abdullahi, appealed to opposition leaders to rise above rivalry and present a united front, ahead of 2027, adding that Nigerians were ready for change, though political leaders were not yet matching that urgency.
“For 2027, Nigerians are ready. But I don’t think we are ready. Nigerians look at us and see different enclaves and different entities. They see competition, rather than cooperation,” Abdullahi said.
Reviewing the book, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed said it initially provoked skepticism but ultimately impressed him.
“I brought to the book some prejudice and heightened curiosity. I expected the author to fall on his face somewhere. I was wrong,” he said.
He described the memoir as revealing and historically significant.
“This book is easily one of the most readable and revealing books I have read in a long while. It captures the essence of our contemporary social and political character,” Baba-Ahmed said.
Former Senate President, David Mark, described the task of rescuing Nigeria as a shared responsibility and praised Abdullahi’s character.
“He is a straightforward person. Even when I disagreed with him, his advice was always adopted,” Mark said.
He also clarified the long-standing controversy around the Doctrine of Necessity, saying “it was the sole responsibility of the Senate and had nothing to do with Kwara State or anyone from Kwara State.’’
The Congress of Northern Democrats (CND), on Thursday, accused former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of destabilising opposition politics and undermining Northern interests through what it described as his “perpetual presidential ambition.”
The group alleged that the former vice president had consistently placed personal ambition above opposition unity, national renewal and generational transition.
Chairman of the group, Comrade Musa Adamu, said in a statement that the CND expressed disappointment over reports that Atiku may be preparing for what would be his seventh attempt at the presidency ahead of the 2027 general elections.
According to the statement, Nigerians are currently battling hunger, insecurity, inflation, unemployment and worsening economic hardship, conditions which require opposition leaders to unite around a credible rescue agenda rather than engage in what it called endless political calculations.
Adamu said: “At a time when millions of Nigerians are crushed by hunger, insecurity, unemployment, inflation, and deepening economic despair, the opposition ought to be rallying around a coherent national rescue agenda.
“Instead, what Nigerians continue to witness is the recycling of old political ambitions, elite ego battles, and endless power calculations headed by Atiku which is disconnected from the suffering of ordinary citizens.
“The North, in particular, must now ask difficult but necessary questions: What exactly has Atiku Abubakar’s endless presidential project achieved for the North or Nigeria? Since 1993, he has remained perpetually in pursuit of power, moving from one platform to another.
“Dominating opposition arrangements, negotiating alliances, and positioning himself as indispensable, yet the opposition today is weaker, more fragmented, and more directionless than ever before courtesy of his greed and manipulation.
“The CND regrets that Atiku has consistently demonstrated a troubling political pattern that whenever his personal ambition is not guaranteed, the stability and cohesion of opposition platforms become secondary.
“Rather than serving as a bridge-builder capable of uniting aggrieved political blocs against a failing government, he has become a recurring source of division, distrust, and internal instability within the opposition space.
“This is precisely why many Nigerians increasingly believe that the opposition’s inability to present a united front is indirectly a plus to the ruling APC. Whether intentionally or otherwise, the outcome remains that a fractured opposition will betray Nigerians to continue to suffer unprecedented hardship.”
The CND also lamented what it described as the failure of coalition platforms such as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to fully emerge as rallying points for Nigerians seeking alternatives to economic hardship and insecurity.
He added: “It is deeply unfortunate that younger Nigerians with fresh ideas, modern political thinking, energy, and grassroots credibility continue to be denied meaningful opportunities because Atiku and his likes are unwilling to step aside. No democracy can grow when leadership circulation is constantly blocked by the same individuals for decades.
“The CND states categorically that Northern Nigeria does not need another cycle of recycled ambition. The region today faces existential crises of terrorism, banditry, collapsing agriculture, poverty, mass youth unemployment, and widespread disillusionment.
“What the North requires are courageous, visionary, and selfless leaders capable of building consensus, mentoring younger generations, and prioritising collective progress over personal political obsession.
“We therefore call on Nigerians, particularly Northern youths, civil society groups, professionals, and political stakeholders, to reject personality-driven politics and begin the urgent task of rebuilding a principled opposition founded on competence, sacrifice, integrity, ideas, and generational renewal.
“The North and Nigeria deserve leadership focused on solutions, not endless campaigns built around one man’s lifelong pursuit of power.”
By Eric Elezuo
The Nigerian political circle is fast taking shape as the 2027 presidential election draws closer. As a result, permutations regarding who contests for what position, and under what platform is gaining momentum.
From every indication, three political parties have so far shown cause as the main platforms of choice, that is if feelers from the reviving Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its newest bride, former President Goodluck Jonathan, are anything to ignore.
The parties are the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the erstwhile coalition group, African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the freshly introduced Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC). One common denomination attached to these political parties is that they all congresses.
Among the three frontline parties is the NDC, whose life was recently enhanced with the inclusion of two south and north politicians; Mr Peter Obi, who contested under the umbrella of the Labour Party in 2023, and unarguably made serious in-roads even as a newcomer, and Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso, who contested under the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Kwankwaso’s influence was restricted to his native Kano State, but garnered a total of 1.4 million votes across boards. Today, the two politicians are joining forces in what has been termed Obi-Kwankwaso (OK) Movement to attempt to wrestle power from President Bola Tinubu. Both are also bringing with them their vocal movements; the Obidients and the Kwankwasiyya.
But analysts, stakeholders and observers alike have various considered the alliance of the two political heavyweights, wondering if the marriage is of strange bedfellows that may discard each other in the nearest future, or if there is any iota of seriousness among them that can lead to materializing its lofty objectives.
Recall that on Sunday, May 3, the duo of Obi and Kwankwaso dumped the ADC, and joined the NDC, blaming external interference and unending litigation that may hinder aspirants in the party from actualising their aspirations in 2027.
The move comes just nine months after Obi, Kwankwaso and the defacto leader of the coalition, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar joined the ADC. However, from available indices, the coalition quickly became mired in legal battles over party leadership. Obi blamed the new obstacles set before the party were direct consequences of the Tinubu-led Federal Government.
“The same Nigerian state and its agents that created unnecessary crises and hostility within the Labour Party that forced me to leave now appear to be finding their way into the ADC,” Obi had said while being received by the NDC leadership.
It is important to out on record that various voices speaking for Tinubu and federala Government have denied that they have in the quagmire that befell ADC, or has been trying to sabotage opposition parties.
Speaking afterwards, both men called for national unity, greater opportunities for young people, and an end to the infighting that has plagued Nigeria’s opposition.
However, their decision risks upsetting allies within the coalition built around the ADC, which had been positioning itself as the main vehicle for opposition unity.
Some figures within the bloc have privately expressed a sense of betrayal, raising fresh doubts about whether Nigeria’s fragmented opposition can sustain a coordinated challenge against President Tinubu, who celebrated his 74th birthday in March.
Across sectors, platforms and political corners, the influence of the Obi-Kwankwaso combination continues to grow given the political terrain a new agenda for discussion.
However, many stakeholders, among whim the very informed, have said that the union may end as abruptly as it started, stressing that political equilibrium or exigency are mostly not determined by absolutely loyalty, but most of the times by self interest and aggradizement. This, they said may turn out to be the hallmark of Alhaji Kwankwaso.
Some have reasoned that the five years age difference between Obi and Kwankwaso, with Kwankwaso having the upper hand, the academic superior of the former Kano governor, and his lengthier days in his political sojourn may form the criteria for him to refuse whatever arrangement already on the ground, including playing the running mate fiddle to Obi.
But even at that, it is important to note that Barack Obama was 47 years old when he became president, and his Vice, Joe Biden, was 66 years old. So Kwankwaso is not going to set a world record as vice that is older than his principal? Definitely not.
Another group has hinted that Kwankwaso is only oiling his own personal path to 2031, when the coast will be ripe for the candidate of northern extraction to vie for the presidency.
“Consequently, his intention is far from working for Obi’s victory nor Atiku, for neither of the two can conveniently bow out in 2031. The only person permitted by law not to seek election in 2031 is President Tinubu, if he wins the 2027 election. So, conveniently, any ambitious person with eye on the presidency will definitely want Tinubu to win,” a source told The Boss.
Another school of thought has hinted that with the sudden interest of Goodluck Jonathan in the presidency, the path may be cleared for Kwankwaso to deputize for Jonathan instead of Obi. However, as at the time that membership registration register was closed on May 10, 2026, Jonathan was a member of the Turaki-led PDP while Kwankwaso is still in the NDC.
But Kwankwaso in his speech during the inaugural convention of the NDC insisted that the presidency should be zoned to the South, noting that the south should be allowed to complete its eight years tenure. Whether he meant that for his new party, or for the Tinubu administration, the speech explains in details:
Fellow Nigerians,
It is with immense pleasure and a deep sense of fulfilment that I address you today on this historic occasion of the National Convention of our great party, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), in Abuja.
Ladies and Gentlemen, Nigeria stands at a critical crossroads. The world is undergoing a profound geopolitical shift, yet our nation has been caught unprepared, largely because of poor leadership. Instead of positioning Nigeria to seize emerging opportunities, bad governance has left us bearing the brunt of global changes.
We are witnessing a sharp decline in the quality of life. Insecurity has created widows and orphans across the land. Millions have been displaced from their homes. Investments are fleeing, critical infrastructure is neglected, the education system is collapsing, and harsh economic policies have been imposed on citizens without meaningful safety nets or relief.
Yet Nigeria’s history teaches us that in our most challenging moments, visionary alliances have provided the way forward. In 1954, a historic partnership was formed between the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU), led by Aminu Kano and the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC), led by Nnamdi Azikiwe to achieve national unity.
Again, in 1960, against steep odds, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe’s National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC) formed a coalition with the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) to birth our independence.
In the Second Republic, the alliance between Shehu Shagari and Alex Ekwueme under the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) helped restore civilian rule and national unity after years of military dictatorship.
It is therefore with great sense of unity and solidarity, that as a loyal party member, I support the decision to zone the presidential ticket of the NDC to the South, so that it allows the region to complete its turn in producing national leadership.
This represents a true opportunity for true national healing. We shall work in abidance with the party’s agreement to ensure fairness and federal character in all ramifications.
This party shall also ensure to change the way things are done today by prioritising leadership without ethnic jingoism and religious favouritism.
The leadership standard we shall set will therefore restore Nigeria’s dignity and will guarantee that our citizens at home and the diaspora will be treated with respect and dignity.
Lastly, we can only achieve that by continuing to mobilise to register with INEC to vote, and the NDC to belong to this noble cause. Please register, today.
Thank you.
Long Live the Nigeria Democratic Congress!
Long Live the Federal Republic of Nigeria!
From every indication, the dumping of Obi by Kwankwaso may remain a page in a fiction narrative, since it is absolutely impossible for more defections to occur at this time, according to the new Electoral Act 2026.
However, the page of whether he is totally in support of Obi as his principal, still remains unwritten and blank. What is obvious is the two, by present political exigency, may lead the charge as NDC attempt to dislodge Tinubu as president, and also stop Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who may lead the ADC attack, from making any headway.
By May 30 according to Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) table, all flag bearers would have been known and observers are throwing their hats in the ring to predict another 3-horse race, exactly as witnessed in 2023.
What would change would depend heavily on the homework every candidate has done prior to this time, and the alliances created on and off the political circle.
But would Kwankwaso Dump Obi at this time, the answer is likely in the negative. The level of cohesion he is willing to give is what however, that is still contentious about.
Time is almost at hand!
The Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, has thrown the 2027 race wide open by zoning
its presidential ticket to the South for a single four-year term, a move that instantly puts Peter Obi and other southern aspirants in play.
The decision came at the party’s national convention on Saturday after a motion by Rep. Afam Victor Ogene of Anambra’s Ogbaru constituency. Delegates adopted it without dissent.
Under the arrangement, the South gets the ticket for 2027 only. Once that four-year term ends, the ticket automatically shifts back to the North.
The zoning formula settles months of backroom jostling inside the NDC over where the party should field its standard-bearer. By locking the North into a wait-and-hold position, the convention has effectively cleared the runway for southern heavyweights to move.
For Obi, the former Anambra governor who ran in 2023, the resolution removes the biggest structural hurdle to picking up the NDC’s form. Other southern aspirants now have the same green light to purchase and process nomination forms.
Party leaders framed the deal as a balance between regional equity and political strategy ahead of 2027. Critics inside the party will watch whether the “automatic” handoff to the North holds once the race gets hot.
For now, the South has its window. The question is who walks through it first.
