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PDP Presidential Primary: How Heavyweights, Atiku, Tambuwal, Wike May Share Delegates’ Votes
As the Peoples Democratic Congress (PDP) prepares to organise a critical presidential primary to choose its flag bearer in Abuja this weekend, all eyes are now fixed on who exactly among the contending candidates may clinch the party’s ticket.
With the exit of former Anambra’s governor, Peter Obi in PDP, there are still 14 aspirants working assiduously to emerge as the standard flag bearer of the PDP. However, it is crystal clear that the contest has been narrowed to a three-man race between heavyweight candidates, former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar; Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, and his counterpart in Rivers, Governor Nyesom Wike.
Examining the intense intrigues trailing how 2, 340 delegates were trimmed to 811 persons following President Muhammadu Buhari’s refusal to sign the amended Electoral Act, and the distribution of the same (delegates) across different geopolitical zones in the country throw light on who may be the real front-runner among the earlier mentioned trio.
Not to gloss over the relevance of some contenders who may drag votes and become spoilers for some of the heavyweights, names like that of former senate presidents, Bukola Saraki and Anyim Pius Anyim; governors, Bala Mohammed; Emmanuel Udom of Bauchi and Akwa Ibom states respectively will appear in the analysis of the outcome of PDP’s presidential primary.
To start with, the obligation of choosing the right candidate lies with delegates, so it is crucial to understudy the 811 voting delegates expected at the PDP convention: 774 national delegates (1 Per LGA) and 37 special delegates (People with disability from each of the 36 states and FCT).
Let’s analyse Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones and see how tight the race is between Atiku who stands on a dwindling political weight; Wike who relies on a financial war chest despite the ‘triumph’ of the ideology of power returning to the north against southern presidency agenda and Tambuwal who enjoys true regional support in Northwest, where the number of delegates is highest.
North-West (Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara)
As a sitting governor in Northwest, where the number of delegates is highest, Tambuwal has an edge over majority of the contenders and this appears to be the ace of spades he may pull to get a surprise victory.
There is an aggregate of 186 national delegates in the Northwest and Tambuwal is the only candidate presented by the region. Firstly, there is no gainsaying that he (Tambuwal) will clear all the delegates’ votes in Sokoto. In Kano, Tambuwal has also become a favourite leader following the exit of a former governor of the state, Rabiu Kwankwaso in PDP, but Saraki and Wike may get some remnant votes. Jigawa, is controlled by Tambuwal’s ally, former governor, Sule Lamido who has seized the territory for his friend.
Tambuwal is also a force to reckon with in Katsina, although Wike’s man, Senator Garba Lado is also doing his best to get some votes. Tambuwal’s train is also strongly stationed in Kaduna and Kebbi but Atiku and Saraki will give him a fight here. In Zamafara, General Aliyu Gusau is supporting Saraki, however, Tambuwal and Atiku can’t be written off in the state.
Despite, Wike’s incursion into the Northwest, a PDP chieftain in the region disclosed that power brokers are tinkering a northern consensus candidate and Tambuwal, it was said stands a higher chance than Atiku as he is seen as very accessible and also enjoys the home advantage factor.
North-East (Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe)
Ordinarily, one would have expected Atiku to get a sigh of relief in Northeast, being his region, however, there are allegations that his formation suffered a setback after he abandoned his political structure following his defeat in the 2019 election. Besides, Atiku has lost plenty of his financial resources having contested for president several times and does not have the wherewithal needed to ignite the excitements desired by his supporters. As such, Northeast states can be marked as a battlefield.
More disturbing for Atiku in the Northeast, is that another aspirant from the region, Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi will be contesting the 118 votes allotted to the zone. Also, former governor of Gombe State, Alhaji Ibrahim Dankwambo is expected to secure the state for Wike; Tambuwal may get Taraba and Borno because of the established relationship he has with the leaders of the states. Nevertheless, Atiku will come out victorious in his home state, Adamawa, and may also extend his weight to get a lead in Yobe State.
North-Central (Benue, FCT, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau)
The Northcentral is a battleground and the votes will be shared between Atiku, Saraki Tambuwal, and Wike. In Benue, Governor Samuel Ortom has reportedly given up on the southern president agenda and may support Saraki, who hails from North Central. Notwithstanding, Wike and Governor, Udom Emmanuel will share votes here, especially because Udom is close with Gabriel Suswam. In Kwara, it is an easy call, all the votes belong to Saraki. In Kogi State, Atiku, Wike, Saraki to share votes. In Nasarawa State, the votes will be shared between Atiku, Tambuwal, and Saraki, the same goes with Niger State. Saraki has an advantage in Plateau State, but Wike will get some votes too. In the Federal Capital Territory, Atiku will get votes but Wike is also on ground, he’s connected with Senator Philip Adudah, representing the FCT.
South-East (Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo)
Wike has the biggest chance of securing votes in Southeast than any other aspirant, but Tambuwal will make a good outing in this region too. In Abia State, Governor Ikpeazu has openly declared his support for Wike while his counterpart, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State is also moving in the same direction. In Anambra, Sen. Stella Odua and Chris Uba are working to ensure a win for Wike
In Imo, the immediate governor of Imo State, Emeka Ihedioha is firmly rooting for Tambuwal’s candidacy while the National Secretary of the PDP, Samuel Anyanwu is backing Wike. In Ebonyi, former Senate President, Anyim Pius Anyim is contesting and will likely get all the delegates in the state on his side.
South-West (Ekiti, Ondo, Osun, Ogun, Oyo and Lagos)
Although Southwest is largely divided, Wike’s alliance with Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, ex-governor of Ekiti, Ayodele Fayose and the gubernatorial aspirant of PDP in Lagos, Olajide Adediran, popularly called ‘Jandor’ puts the Rivers governor on a tripod stand in the region which has 143 delegates, the second-largest bloc after the North-West. Wike will most likely be the preferred candidate of delegates in Ekiti, Lagos, Oyo.
Meanwhile, Saraki’s romance with Senator Ademola Adeleke of Osun State, gives him an edge over Atiku who may also get some votes in the state. In Ondo, Atiku’s man, Eyitayo Jegede will presumably influence higher proportion of delegates to do the bidding of his master while former Ondo state governor, Olusegun Mimiko will other side secure some votes for Wike.
South-South (Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers)
Despite his bright sides in some regions, Wike like Atiku will not be enjoying an easy ride in his ward (South-South) which he calls home. As for Rivers State, all delegates’ in the state will no doubt channel their votes to see a win for Wike; he might record this similar feat in Cross River.
In Akwa Ibom where the sitting governor, Emmanuel Udom is also contesting all votes will be wasted on Udom. Depending on the outcome of the legal tussle over control of Edo PDP, the coin may be tossed in favour of either Saraki who enjoys the support of Governor Godwin Obaseki, or the party’s chairman Dan Orbih. Bayelsa is murky water for Wike as his political foe, Seriake Dickson is working against his candidacy while Governor Diri Diouye is also not on his (Wike) side. Votes here may be split between Saraki and Tambuwal. Delta, is a battleground, votes may be shared between Saraki and Atiku as Governor Ifeanyi Okowa and his predecessor, James Ibori now hold divergent views on the trajectory of who to support.
Emmanuel Adeniyi, writes from Lagos
Political economist, Prof. Pat Utomi, has stated that if the former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, decides to run as someone’s vice-presidential candidate, he will immediately stop supporting him.
Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Thursday, Prof. Utomi assured that the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party will contest for the presidency in 2027, following his formal defection to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) on Wednesday.
“I can tell you that Peter Obi will contest for the presidency. The day he becomes somebody’s vice president, I walk away from his corner. I can tell you that for a fact,” Prof. Utomi said on the programme.
In the same interview, Prof. Utomi also made a case for limiting presidential and gubernatorial candidates to Nigerians aged 70 and below.
He lamented that the Nigerian presidency has increasingly become a “retirement home,” criticising both former President Muhammadu Buhari’s and President Bola Tinubu’s administrations as “government in absentia.”
“Something important about this election to bear in mind is that the Nigerian presidency has become a retirement home where people go for the Nigerian state to pay their medical bills. It is not acceptable. They don’t have the fitness to run the country. The last one, and the current one, have essentially been government-in-absentia leaders.”
“I, Pat Utomi, am insisting that I will canvass to the Nigerian people that nobody over the age of 70 should run for an executive position, whether it be governor or president,” he concluded.
Rescue mission
Obi, who came third in the 2023 presidential election with over 6 million votes, officially announced his defection to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Enugu on Wednesday.
In his speech at the event, Obi said his move to the ADC marks the beginning of a journey to rescue the country from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
“Today is an important day; today is the last day of 2025, so we are ending this year with the hope that, in 2026, we will begin a journey to rescue our country and set it on the path of proper socio-economic development that will be unifying and inclusive,” Obi stated.
He added: “We have all watched as those who benefited from our democracy have, over time, become accessories to destroying it—either through coercion or gangsterism against the opposition. We cannot allow this to happen; we will resist it.”
President Bola Tinubu has assured Nigerians that 2026 will be a more prosperous year for all.
Tinubu stated this in his New Year message on Thursday, adding that his administration would sustain the momentum on its major reforms.
“During 2025, we sustained the momentum on our major reforms. We had a fiscal reset and also recorded steady economic progress.
“Despite persistent global economic headwinds, we recorded tangible and measurable gains, particularly in the economy.
“These achievements reaffirm our belief that the difficult but necessary reforms we embarked upon are moving us in the right direction with more concrete results on the horizon for the ordinary Nigerian,” the President said in the statement he personally signed.
Consolidating gains
Tinubu said that the focus in 2026 would be on consolidating the gains and continuing to build a resilient, sustainable, inclusive, and growth-oriented economy.
According to him, Nigeria closed 2025 on a strong note, as despite the policies to fight inflation, it recorded a robust GDP growth each quarter, with annualised growth expected to exceed four per cent for the year.
Tinubu explained that the nation maintained trade surpluses and achieved greater exchange rate stability while inflation declined steadily and reached below 15 per cent, in line with his administration’s target.
“In 2026, we are determined to reduce inflation further and ensure that the benefits of reform reach every Nigerian household. In 2025, the Nigerian Stock Exchange outperformed its peers, posting a robust 48.12 per cent gain and consolidating its bullish run that began in the second half of 2023.
“Supported by sound monetary policy management, our foreign reserves stood at $45.4 billion as of December 29, 2025, providing a substantial buffer against external shocks for the Naira. We expect this position to strengthen further in the New Year,” he said.
“Foreign direct investment is also responding positively. In the third quarter of 2025, FDI rose to $720 million, up from $90 million in the preceding quarter, reflecting renewed investor confidence in Nigeria’s economic direction, which global credit rating agencies, including Moody’s, Fitch, and Standard & Poor’s, have consistently affirmed and applauded,” Tinubu added.
Tax reforms
The President further assured that with patience, fiscal discipline, and unity of purpose, Nigeria would emerge in 2026 stronger and better positioned for sustained growth.
According to him, as inflation and interest rates moderate, his administration expects increased fiscal space for productive investment in infrastructure and human capital development.
“We are also confronting the challenge of multiple taxation across all tiers of government. I commend states that have aligned with the national tax harmonisation agenda by adopting harmonised tax laws to reduce the excessive burden of taxes, levies, and fees on our people and on basic consumption.
“The new year marks a critical phase in implementing our tax reforms, designed to build a fair, competitive, and robust fiscal foundation for Nigeria.
“By harmonising our tax system, we aim to raise revenue sustainably, address fiscal distortions and strengthen our capacity to finance infrastructure and social investments that will deliver shared prosperity,” he added.
National security
Tinubu said that though the path of reform is never easy, his administration remains mindful that economic progress must be accompanied by security and peace.
“Our nation continues to confront security threats from criminal and terrorist elements determined to disrupt our way of life. In collaboration with international partners, including the United States, decisive actions were taken against terrorist targets in parts of the Northwest on December 24.
“Our Armed Forces have since sustained operations against terror networks and criminal strongholds across the Northwest and Northeast,” he said.
But the President stated that in 2026, Nigeria’s security and intelligence agencies would deepen cooperation with regional and global partners to eliminate all threats to national security.
“We remain committed to protecting lives, property, and the territorial integrity of our country.
“I continue to believe that a decentralised policing system with appropriate safeguards, complemented by properly regulated forest guards, all anchored on accountability, is critical to effectively addressing terrorism, banditry, and related security challenges,” he added.
Investments in infrastructure
The New Year marks the beginning of a more robust phase of economic growth, with tangible improvements in the lives of our people.
Tinubu also said that his government would accelerate the implementation of the Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme, aiming to bring at least 10 million Nigerians into productive economic activity by empowering at least 1,000 people in each of the 8,809 wards across the country.
“Through agriculture, trade, food processing, and mining, we will stimulate local economies and expand grassroots opportunities.
“We will also continue to invest in modernising Nigeria’s infrastructure – roads, power, ports, railways, airports, pipelines, healthcare, education, and agriculture to strengthen food security and improve quality of life. All ongoing projects will continue without interruption,” he said.
He, however, urged Nigerians to play their part to achieve the objectives in 2026 by standing together in unity and purpose, upholding patriotism, and serving the country with honour and integrity in their respective roles.
Let us resolve to be better citizens, better neighbours, and better stewards of our nation.
An Abuja High Court has cleared the way for the implementation of Nigeria’s new tax regime scheduled to commence on January 1, 2026, dismissing a suit seeking to halt the programme.
The ruling gives the Federal government, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the National Assembly full legal backing to proceed with the take-off of the new tax laws.
The suit was filed by the Incorporated Trustees of African Initiative for Abuse of Public Trustees, which dragged the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the President, the Attorney-General of the Federation, the President of the Senate, Speaker of the House of Representatives and the National Assembly before the court over alleged discrepancies in the recently enacted tax laws.
In an ex-parte motion, the plaintiff sought an interim injunction restraining the Federal Government, FIRS, the National Assembly and related agencies from implementing or enforcing the provisions of the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025; Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025; Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, 2025; and the Joint Revenue Board of Nigeria (Establishment) Act, 2025, pending the determination of the substantive suit.
The group also asked the court to restrain the President from implementing the laws in any part of the federation pending the hearing of its motion on notice.
However, in a ruling delivered on Tuesday, Justice Kawu struck out the application, holding that it lacked merit and failed to establish sufficient legal grounds to warrant the grant of the reliefs sought.
The court ruled that the plaintiffs did not demonstrate how the implementation of the new tax laws would occasion irreparable harm or violate any provision of the Constitution, stressing that matters of fiscal policy and economic reforms fall squarely within the powers of government.
Justice Kawu further held that once a law has been duly enacted and gazetted, any alleged errors or controversies can only be addressed through legislative amendment or a substantive court order, noting that disagreements over tax laws cannot stop the implementation of an existing law.
Consequently, the court affirmed that there was no legal impediment to the commencement of the new tax regime and directed that implementation should proceed as scheduled from January 1, 2026.
The new tax regime is anchored on four landmark tax reform bills signed into law in 2025 as part of the Federal Government’s broader fiscal and economic reform agenda aimed at boosting revenue, simplifying the tax system and reducing leakages.
The laws — the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025, Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025, Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, 2025, and the Joint Revenue Board of Nigeria (Establishment) Act, 2025 — consolidate and replace several existing tax statutes, including laws governing companies income tax, personal income tax, value added tax, capital gains tax and stamp duties.
Key elements of the reforms include the harmonisation of multiple taxes into a more streamlined framework, expansion of the tax base, protection for low-income earners and small businesses, and the introduction of modern, technology-driven tax administration systems such as digital filing and electronic compliance monitoring.
The reforms also provide for the restructuring of federal tax administration, including the creation of the Nigeria Revenue Service, to strengthen efficiency, coordination and revenue collection across government levels.
While the Federal government has described the reforms as critical to stabilising public finances and funding infrastructure and social services, the laws have generated intense public debate, with some civil society groups and political actors alleging discrepancies between the versions passed by the National Assembly and those later gazetted.
These concerns sparked calls for suspension, re-gazetting and legal action, culminating in the suit dismissed by the Abuja High Court.
Reacting to the judgment, stakeholders described the ruling as a major boost for the reforms, saying it has removed all legal obstacles that could have delayed the implementation of the new tax framework.
