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PDP Presidential Primary: How Heavyweights, Atiku, Tambuwal, Wike May Share Delegates’ Votes
As the Peoples Democratic Congress (PDP) prepares to organise a critical presidential primary to choose its flag bearer in Abuja this weekend, all eyes are now fixed on who exactly among the contending candidates may clinch the party’s ticket.
With the exit of former Anambra’s governor, Peter Obi in PDP, there are still 14 aspirants working assiduously to emerge as the standard flag bearer of the PDP. However, it is crystal clear that the contest has been narrowed to a three-man race between heavyweight candidates, former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar; Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, and his counterpart in Rivers, Governor Nyesom Wike.
Examining the intense intrigues trailing how 2, 340 delegates were trimmed to 811 persons following President Muhammadu Buhari’s refusal to sign the amended Electoral Act, and the distribution of the same (delegates) across different geopolitical zones in the country throw light on who may be the real front-runner among the earlier mentioned trio.
Not to gloss over the relevance of some contenders who may drag votes and become spoilers for some of the heavyweights, names like that of former senate presidents, Bukola Saraki and Anyim Pius Anyim; governors, Bala Mohammed; Emmanuel Udom of Bauchi and Akwa Ibom states respectively will appear in the analysis of the outcome of PDP’s presidential primary.
To start with, the obligation of choosing the right candidate lies with delegates, so it is crucial to understudy the 811 voting delegates expected at the PDP convention: 774 national delegates (1 Per LGA) and 37 special delegates (People with disability from each of the 36 states and FCT).
Let’s analyse Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones and see how tight the race is between Atiku who stands on a dwindling political weight; Wike who relies on a financial war chest despite the ‘triumph’ of the ideology of power returning to the north against southern presidency agenda and Tambuwal who enjoys true regional support in Northwest, where the number of delegates is highest.
North-West (Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara)
As a sitting governor in Northwest, where the number of delegates is highest, Tambuwal has an edge over majority of the contenders and this appears to be the ace of spades he may pull to get a surprise victory.
There is an aggregate of 186 national delegates in the Northwest and Tambuwal is the only candidate presented by the region. Firstly, there is no gainsaying that he (Tambuwal) will clear all the delegates’ votes in Sokoto. In Kano, Tambuwal has also become a favourite leader following the exit of a former governor of the state, Rabiu Kwankwaso in PDP, but Saraki and Wike may get some remnant votes. Jigawa, is controlled by Tambuwal’s ally, former governor, Sule Lamido who has seized the territory for his friend.
Tambuwal is also a force to reckon with in Katsina, although Wike’s man, Senator Garba Lado is also doing his best to get some votes. Tambuwal’s train is also strongly stationed in Kaduna and Kebbi but Atiku and Saraki will give him a fight here. In Zamafara, General Aliyu Gusau is supporting Saraki, however, Tambuwal and Atiku can’t be written off in the state.
Despite, Wike’s incursion into the Northwest, a PDP chieftain in the region disclosed that power brokers are tinkering a northern consensus candidate and Tambuwal, it was said stands a higher chance than Atiku as he is seen as very accessible and also enjoys the home advantage factor.
North-East (Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe)
Ordinarily, one would have expected Atiku to get a sigh of relief in Northeast, being his region, however, there are allegations that his formation suffered a setback after he abandoned his political structure following his defeat in the 2019 election. Besides, Atiku has lost plenty of his financial resources having contested for president several times and does not have the wherewithal needed to ignite the excitements desired by his supporters. As such, Northeast states can be marked as a battlefield.
More disturbing for Atiku in the Northeast, is that another aspirant from the region, Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi will be contesting the 118 votes allotted to the zone. Also, former governor of Gombe State, Alhaji Ibrahim Dankwambo is expected to secure the state for Wike; Tambuwal may get Taraba and Borno because of the established relationship he has with the leaders of the states. Nevertheless, Atiku will come out victorious in his home state, Adamawa, and may also extend his weight to get a lead in Yobe State.
North-Central (Benue, FCT, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau)
The Northcentral is a battleground and the votes will be shared between Atiku, Saraki Tambuwal, and Wike. In Benue, Governor Samuel Ortom has reportedly given up on the southern president agenda and may support Saraki, who hails from North Central. Notwithstanding, Wike and Governor, Udom Emmanuel will share votes here, especially because Udom is close with Gabriel Suswam. In Kwara, it is an easy call, all the votes belong to Saraki. In Kogi State, Atiku, Wike, Saraki to share votes. In Nasarawa State, the votes will be shared between Atiku, Tambuwal, and Saraki, the same goes with Niger State. Saraki has an advantage in Plateau State, but Wike will get some votes too. In the Federal Capital Territory, Atiku will get votes but Wike is also on ground, he’s connected with Senator Philip Adudah, representing the FCT.
South-East (Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo)
Wike has the biggest chance of securing votes in Southeast than any other aspirant, but Tambuwal will make a good outing in this region too. In Abia State, Governor Ikpeazu has openly declared his support for Wike while his counterpart, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State is also moving in the same direction. In Anambra, Sen. Stella Odua and Chris Uba are working to ensure a win for Wike
In Imo, the immediate governor of Imo State, Emeka Ihedioha is firmly rooting for Tambuwal’s candidacy while the National Secretary of the PDP, Samuel Anyanwu is backing Wike. In Ebonyi, former Senate President, Anyim Pius Anyim is contesting and will likely get all the delegates in the state on his side.
South-West (Ekiti, Ondo, Osun, Ogun, Oyo and Lagos)
Although Southwest is largely divided, Wike’s alliance with Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, ex-governor of Ekiti, Ayodele Fayose and the gubernatorial aspirant of PDP in Lagos, Olajide Adediran, popularly called ‘Jandor’ puts the Rivers governor on a tripod stand in the region which has 143 delegates, the second-largest bloc after the North-West. Wike will most likely be the preferred candidate of delegates in Ekiti, Lagos, Oyo.
Meanwhile, Saraki’s romance with Senator Ademola Adeleke of Osun State, gives him an edge over Atiku who may also get some votes in the state. In Ondo, Atiku’s man, Eyitayo Jegede will presumably influence higher proportion of delegates to do the bidding of his master while former Ondo state governor, Olusegun Mimiko will other side secure some votes for Wike.
South-South (Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers)
Despite his bright sides in some regions, Wike like Atiku will not be enjoying an easy ride in his ward (South-South) which he calls home. As for Rivers State, all delegates’ in the state will no doubt channel their votes to see a win for Wike; he might record this similar feat in Cross River.
In Akwa Ibom where the sitting governor, Emmanuel Udom is also contesting all votes will be wasted on Udom. Depending on the outcome of the legal tussle over control of Edo PDP, the coin may be tossed in favour of either Saraki who enjoys the support of Governor Godwin Obaseki, or the party’s chairman Dan Orbih. Bayelsa is murky water for Wike as his political foe, Seriake Dickson is working against his candidacy while Governor Diri Diouye is also not on his (Wike) side. Votes here may be split between Saraki and Tambuwal. Delta, is a battleground, votes may be shared between Saraki and Atiku as Governor Ifeanyi Okowa and his predecessor, James Ibori now hold divergent views on the trajectory of who to support.
Emmanuel Adeniyi, writes from Lagos
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has declared the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Biodun Oyebanji, winner of the 2026 Ekiti State governorship election.
Oyebanji secured a landslide victory, polling 319,224 votes to defeat his closest challenger, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Dr. Wole Oluyede, who garnered 40,543 votes. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, Dare Bejide, came a distant third with 12,872 votes.
The election, held across all 16 local government areas of the state, was overshadowed by reports of irregularities and widespread allegations of vote buying, drawing strong condemnation from observers.
The official results were announced on Sunday morning by the Chief Returning Officer, Professor Adenike Oladiji, who declared Oyebanji duly elected after meeting the constitutional requirements.
In her declaration, Professor Oladiji stated: “I, Professor Adenike Oladiji, hereby certify that I am the Returning Officer for the Ekiti State Governorship Election held on June 20, 2026, and that the election was conducted in compliance with the provisions of the law. Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji of the All Progressives Congress, having satisfied the requirements of the law and scored the highest number of valid votes cast, is hereby declared the winner and returned elected.”
Source: Reuters
Arise Television anchor, Rufai Oseni, has alleged that there may be attempts to prevent key opposition figures, including Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, from appearing on the ballot for the 2027 general elections.
Oseni’s remark followed a Federal High Court judgment ordering the de-registration of some political parties.
Justice Peter Lifu of the Federal High Court in Abuja, on Monday, ordered the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to deregister the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Accord Party (AP), Action Peoples’ Party (APP), Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), and Action Alliance Party (AAP) over alleged constitutional breaches.
The judgment arose from a lawsuit filed by the Incorporated Trustees of the National Forum of Former Legislators (NFFL), which argued that the affected parties failed to meet constitutional and statutory electoral performance requirements necessary for continued recognition as political parties.
Justice Lifu subsequently barred INEC from recognising the affected parties, accepting nominations from them or permitting them to participate in activities related to the 2027 general elections.
The ruling, if upheld, could affect the political ambitions of several politicians, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is the ADC presidential flag-bearer, and Osun State governor Ademola Adeleke, who is seeking re-election on the platform of the Accord Party.
But speaking on Arise TV’s Morning Show on Tuesday, Oseni described the court ruling as a “test” of public reaction, warning that more actions could follow ahead of the next general election.
According to him, opposition parties such as the African Democratic Congress, ADC, and the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, should be cautious, claiming that efforts could be made to stop major figures from participating in the election.
Oseni argued that the judgment was part of a broader process aimed at shaping the political landscape ahead of 2027.
He maintained that the ruling came despite some of the affected parties having recorded electoral victories in recent elections.
He warned that Nigerians must remain vigilant to safeguard the country’s democracy, stressing the need for judicial reforms alongside efforts to tackle insecurity.
Oseni said: “NDC, ADC should be careful because there will be attempt, and this is me predicting now, to ensure that Obi, Atiku and other big contenders are not on the ballot.
“This that you saw yesterday is just a test. This is not the real place where the whole thing is going. This is me predicting now.
“You know before you have a show you test the microphone. They want to see the reactions of Nigerians. More is still coming.
“You can see how they carry a judgement when ADC won two House of Representatives seats in Kogi, one Kogi House of Assembly seat, APP one chairmanship seat in Jigawa, Zenith Labour party won several seats in Abia, but they still went ahead and issued judgement for deregistration after the Court of Appeal, a higher court, said it should stay on that.
“If we want to deal with this judicial rascality, can I tell you something? The judge that gave this judgment, nothing will happen to him. Nothing on this earth. They are just coming.
“And who is leading this group? Gbajabiamila. Have you forgotten what Gbajabiamila said on Hon Ajibade’s birthday? So they are just coming. This one is just a test. The next one they will do is the NDC.
“With the way they’re going, if Nigerians don’t shine their eyes when they will finally have this election, you will not have the major contenders in the ballot. This thing they have just done is to test reactions from Nigerians.
“I saw this thing coming. You know we are going into an election in which Atiku Abubakar is the only major candidate from the North. It’s not like the last one you have Kwankwaso that can split the Kano votes. And you have Peter Obi and general consensus that a lot of people are in abject penury, insecurity is raging hard.
“This is the beginning of many things. They are just testing the microphone. It’s engineered. More is coming. Nigerians, it is you that will save your democracy. Judicial reforms have become so important as insecurity in Nigeria.”
