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PDP Presidential Primary: How Heavyweights, Atiku, Tambuwal, Wike May Share Delegates’ Votes
As the Peoples Democratic Congress (PDP) prepares to organise a critical presidential primary to choose its flag bearer in Abuja this weekend, all eyes are now fixed on who exactly among the contending candidates may clinch the party’s ticket.
With the exit of former Anambra’s governor, Peter Obi in PDP, there are still 14 aspirants working assiduously to emerge as the standard flag bearer of the PDP. However, it is crystal clear that the contest has been narrowed to a three-man race between heavyweight candidates, former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar; Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, and his counterpart in Rivers, Governor Nyesom Wike.
Examining the intense intrigues trailing how 2, 340 delegates were trimmed to 811 persons following President Muhammadu Buhari’s refusal to sign the amended Electoral Act, and the distribution of the same (delegates) across different geopolitical zones in the country throw light on who may be the real front-runner among the earlier mentioned trio.
Not to gloss over the relevance of some contenders who may drag votes and become spoilers for some of the heavyweights, names like that of former senate presidents, Bukola Saraki and Anyim Pius Anyim; governors, Bala Mohammed; Emmanuel Udom of Bauchi and Akwa Ibom states respectively will appear in the analysis of the outcome of PDP’s presidential primary.
To start with, the obligation of choosing the right candidate lies with delegates, so it is crucial to understudy the 811 voting delegates expected at the PDP convention: 774 national delegates (1 Per LGA) and 37 special delegates (People with disability from each of the 36 states and FCT).
Let’s analyse Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones and see how tight the race is between Atiku who stands on a dwindling political weight; Wike who relies on a financial war chest despite the ‘triumph’ of the ideology of power returning to the north against southern presidency agenda and Tambuwal who enjoys true regional support in Northwest, where the number of delegates is highest.
North-West (Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara)
As a sitting governor in Northwest, where the number of delegates is highest, Tambuwal has an edge over majority of the contenders and this appears to be the ace of spades he may pull to get a surprise victory.
There is an aggregate of 186 national delegates in the Northwest and Tambuwal is the only candidate presented by the region. Firstly, there is no gainsaying that he (Tambuwal) will clear all the delegates’ votes in Sokoto. In Kano, Tambuwal has also become a favourite leader following the exit of a former governor of the state, Rabiu Kwankwaso in PDP, but Saraki and Wike may get some remnant votes. Jigawa, is controlled by Tambuwal’s ally, former governor, Sule Lamido who has seized the territory for his friend.
Tambuwal is also a force to reckon with in Katsina, although Wike’s man, Senator Garba Lado is also doing his best to get some votes. Tambuwal’s train is also strongly stationed in Kaduna and Kebbi but Atiku and Saraki will give him a fight here. In Zamafara, General Aliyu Gusau is supporting Saraki, however, Tambuwal and Atiku can’t be written off in the state.
Despite, Wike’s incursion into the Northwest, a PDP chieftain in the region disclosed that power brokers are tinkering a northern consensus candidate and Tambuwal, it was said stands a higher chance than Atiku as he is seen as very accessible and also enjoys the home advantage factor.
North-East (Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe)
Ordinarily, one would have expected Atiku to get a sigh of relief in Northeast, being his region, however, there are allegations that his formation suffered a setback after he abandoned his political structure following his defeat in the 2019 election. Besides, Atiku has lost plenty of his financial resources having contested for president several times and does not have the wherewithal needed to ignite the excitements desired by his supporters. As such, Northeast states can be marked as a battlefield.
More disturbing for Atiku in the Northeast, is that another aspirant from the region, Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi will be contesting the 118 votes allotted to the zone. Also, former governor of Gombe State, Alhaji Ibrahim Dankwambo is expected to secure the state for Wike; Tambuwal may get Taraba and Borno because of the established relationship he has with the leaders of the states. Nevertheless, Atiku will come out victorious in his home state, Adamawa, and may also extend his weight to get a lead in Yobe State.
North-Central (Benue, FCT, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau)
The Northcentral is a battleground and the votes will be shared between Atiku, Saraki Tambuwal, and Wike. In Benue, Governor Samuel Ortom has reportedly given up on the southern president agenda and may support Saraki, who hails from North Central. Notwithstanding, Wike and Governor, Udom Emmanuel will share votes here, especially because Udom is close with Gabriel Suswam. In Kwara, it is an easy call, all the votes belong to Saraki. In Kogi State, Atiku, Wike, Saraki to share votes. In Nasarawa State, the votes will be shared between Atiku, Tambuwal, and Saraki, the same goes with Niger State. Saraki has an advantage in Plateau State, but Wike will get some votes too. In the Federal Capital Territory, Atiku will get votes but Wike is also on ground, he’s connected with Senator Philip Adudah, representing the FCT.
South-East (Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo)
Wike has the biggest chance of securing votes in Southeast than any other aspirant, but Tambuwal will make a good outing in this region too. In Abia State, Governor Ikpeazu has openly declared his support for Wike while his counterpart, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State is also moving in the same direction. In Anambra, Sen. Stella Odua and Chris Uba are working to ensure a win for Wike
In Imo, the immediate governor of Imo State, Emeka Ihedioha is firmly rooting for Tambuwal’s candidacy while the National Secretary of the PDP, Samuel Anyanwu is backing Wike. In Ebonyi, former Senate President, Anyim Pius Anyim is contesting and will likely get all the delegates in the state on his side.
South-West (Ekiti, Ondo, Osun, Ogun, Oyo and Lagos)
Although Southwest is largely divided, Wike’s alliance with Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, ex-governor of Ekiti, Ayodele Fayose and the gubernatorial aspirant of PDP in Lagos, Olajide Adediran, popularly called ‘Jandor’ puts the Rivers governor on a tripod stand in the region which has 143 delegates, the second-largest bloc after the North-West. Wike will most likely be the preferred candidate of delegates in Ekiti, Lagos, Oyo.
Meanwhile, Saraki’s romance with Senator Ademola Adeleke of Osun State, gives him an edge over Atiku who may also get some votes in the state. In Ondo, Atiku’s man, Eyitayo Jegede will presumably influence higher proportion of delegates to do the bidding of his master while former Ondo state governor, Olusegun Mimiko will other side secure some votes for Wike.
South-South (Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers)
Despite his bright sides in some regions, Wike like Atiku will not be enjoying an easy ride in his ward (South-South) which he calls home. As for Rivers State, all delegates’ in the state will no doubt channel their votes to see a win for Wike; he might record this similar feat in Cross River.
In Akwa Ibom where the sitting governor, Emmanuel Udom is also contesting all votes will be wasted on Udom. Depending on the outcome of the legal tussle over control of Edo PDP, the coin may be tossed in favour of either Saraki who enjoys the support of Governor Godwin Obaseki, or the party’s chairman Dan Orbih. Bayelsa is murky water for Wike as his political foe, Seriake Dickson is working against his candidacy while Governor Diri Diouye is also not on his (Wike) side. Votes here may be split between Saraki and Tambuwal. Delta, is a battleground, votes may be shared between Saraki and Atiku as Governor Ifeanyi Okowa and his predecessor, James Ibori now hold divergent views on the trajectory of who to support.
Emmanuel Adeniyi, writes from Lagos
President John Mahama of Ghana has ordered the immediate recall of Mohammed Ahmed, known as Baba Jamal, from his position as the country’s high commissioner to Nigeria over allegations of vote buying in Saturday’s parliamentary primaries.
Mahama’s decision was in response to claims that delegates were induced during the National Democratic Congress (NDC) primaries.
Jamal was a candidate in the polls, which he later won.
During the election, Jamal’s campaign team offered 32-inch televisions and boiled eggs to delegates who took part in the primaries.
“So if you give television sets to people, what is wrong with it when you give things to people?” he asked, according to local media JoyOnline.
“Is this the first time I am giving things to people?”
Explaining the reason behind Jamal’s recall, Felix Ofosu, Mahama’s spokesperson, said that while the allegations of vote buying were made against multiple candidates who contested the primaries, Jamal was the only serving public officer among them.
“The President has also noted the public statement by the General Secretary of the NDC indicating that the Party has commenced its own investigations into the allegations arising from the primaries,” the statement reads.
“Without prejudice to the ongoing internal party processes, and strictly in view of the standards of conduct expected of public officers, the President considers it necessary to act decisively to preserve the integrity of public office and to avoid any perception of impropriety or conflict with the Government’s Code of Conduct for Political Appointees.”
Ofosu said the high commissioner’s recall takes effect immediately, and that directives had been issued to the minister for foreign affairs to take the necessary administrative steps.
The All Progressives Congress, APC, has reconstituted the leadership of its 2026 National Convention Central Coordination Committee, appointing former Katsina State Governor, Aminu Bello Masari, as the new chairman.
Governor Hope Uzodimma of Imo State, who was initially named chairman of the committee, has been reassigned to serve as treasurer.
In addition, the APC expanded the committee’s membership from 73 to 90 members to accommodate more party stakeholders.
Newly added members include Senator Barry Mpigi and several other prominent APC chieftains.
According to the party, the adjustments form part of the revised 2026 APC National Convention Central Coordination Committee and were made to reflect zoning considerations and other strategic exigencies.
The Senate, yesterday, passed the Electoral Bill 2026 following hours of robust debate. But it rejected a proposal to mandate real-time electronic transmission of election results while approving significant reforms to election timelines, penalties for electoral offences and voting technology.
At the centre of the controversy was Section 60, which governs the transmission of polling unit results. Senators voted down a recommendation by the Senate Committee on Electoral Matters that would have compelled presiding officers to upload results to the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal in real time.
Instead, lawmakers retained the approach in the 2022 Electoral Act, which allows electronic transmission after votes are counted and publicly announced at the polling unit.
Relatedly, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which concluded work on the timetable and schedule of activities for the 2027 general election, is unable to release it due to ongoing amendments to the Electoral Act by the National Assembly.
It also identified the inclusion of deceased persons on the voters’ register, prompting plans for a nationwide verification exercise.
On its part, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) raised the alarm over the National Assembly’s delay in passing the Electoral Act amendments, warning that the situation could expose political parties to technical and legal pitfalls ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Under the retained provisions, presiding officers are required to: count votes at the polling unit, record results on prescribed forms, announce them publicly and transmit them electronically to the appropriate collation centre.
Copies must also be provided to polling agents and security personnel where available. Violators face fines of up to N500,000 or a minimum of six months’ imprisonment.
Senators opposing the real-time upload argued that inconsistent network coverage and logistical challenges could trigger legal disputes and undermine electoral credibility.
Chairman of the Senate Committee on Media and Public Affairs, Adeyemi Adaramodu, described the debate as largely semantic.
“Electronic transmission remains part of the law,” he said, “and results will continue to be available to the public both electronically and through physical forms, ensuring verifiable records for disputes.”
Beyond the transmission debate, the Senate approved far-reaching amendments to Nigeria’s electoral calendar. The election notice period was reduced from 360 days to 180 days, the deadline for submission of party candidate lists was shortened from 120 to 90 days, and the nomination period was cut from 180 to 90 days.
To deter electoral malpractice, the fine for unlawful possession of voters’ cards was increased from N500,000 to N5 million, though the Senate rejected a proposal for a 10-year ban on vote-buyers, opting for stiffer financial penalties instead. The smart card reader was officially removed from the electoral framework and replaced with the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS).
INEC Chairman, Prof Joash Amupitan, noted the delay yesterday in Abuja at INEC’s first quarterly consultative meeting with Civil Society Organisations (CSOs).
The e-transmission of results, if approved, would have required INEC presiding officers to upload results from each polling unit to the IReV portal in real time, immediately after completing Form EC&A, which must be signed and stamped by the presiding officer and countersigned by party agents.
Instead, the senators chose to retain the present Electoral Act provision, which mandates that “the presiding officer shall transfer the results, including the total number of accredited voters and the results of the ballot, in a manner as prescribed by the Commission.”
The rejected proposal was contained in the new Clause 60(5) of the draft bill, which aimed to mandate presiding officers to electronically transmit polling unit results in real time after completing and signing Form EC8A.
The clause was designed to strengthen transparency and reduce electoral malpractice through technology-driven result management.
The motion to reject the electronic transmission clause was swiftly seconded by the Deputy President of the Senate, Barau Jibrin.
Similarly, the Senate also rejected a proposed amendment under Clause 47 that would have allowed voters to present electronically-generated voter identification, including a downloadable voter card with a unique Quick Response (QR) code, as a valid means of accreditation.
The Senate further upheld the provision mandating the use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) or any other technological device prescribed by INEC for voter verification and authentication, rather than allowing alternative digital identification methods as proposed in the new bill.
With these decisions, the Senate reaffirmed the use of PVC and BVAS-based accreditation while rejecting efforts to expand digital voter identification and make electronic transmission of results compulsory.
The Guardian
