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PDP Presidential Primary: How Heavyweights, Atiku, Tambuwal, Wike May Share Delegates’ Votes

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As the Peoples Democratic Congress (PDP) prepares to organise a critical presidential primary to choose its flag bearer in Abuja this weekend, all eyes are now fixed on who exactly among the contending candidates may clinch the party’s ticket.

With the exit of former Anambra’s governor, Peter Obi in PDP, there are still 14 aspirants working assiduously to emerge as the standard flag bearer of the PDP. However, it is crystal clear that the contest has been narrowed to a three-man race between heavyweight candidates, former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar; Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, and his counterpart in Rivers, Governor Nyesom Wike.

Examining the intense intrigues trailing how 2, 340 delegates were trimmed to 811 persons following President Muhammadu Buhari’s refusal to sign the amended Electoral Act, and the distribution of the same (delegates) across different geopolitical zones in the country throw light on who may be the real front-runner among the earlier mentioned trio.

Not to gloss over the relevance of some contenders who may drag votes and become spoilers for some of the heavyweights, names like that of former senate presidents, Bukola Saraki and Anyim Pius Anyim; governors, Bala Mohammed; Emmanuel Udom of Bauchi and Akwa Ibom states respectively will appear in the analysis of the outcome of PDP’s presidential primary.

To start with, the obligation of choosing the right candidate lies with delegates, so it is crucial to understudy the 811 voting delegates expected at the PDP convention: 774 national delegates (1 Per LGA) and 37 special delegates (People with disability from each of the 36 states and FCT).

Let’s analyse Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones and see how tight the race is between Atiku who stands on a dwindling political weight; Wike who relies on a financial war chest despite the ‘triumph’ of the ideology of power returning to the north against southern presidency agenda and Tambuwal who enjoys true regional support in Northwest, where the number of delegates is highest.

North-West (Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara)

As a sitting governor in Northwest, where the number of delegates is highest, Tambuwal has an edge over majority of the contenders and this appears to be the ace of spades he may pull to get a surprise victory.

There is an aggregate of 186 national delegates in the Northwest and Tambuwal is the only candidate presented by the region. Firstly, there is no gainsaying that he (Tambuwal) will clear all the delegates’ votes in Sokoto. In Kano, Tambuwal has also become a favourite leader following the exit of a former governor of the state, Rabiu Kwankwaso in PDP, but Saraki and Wike may get some remnant votes. Jigawa, is controlled by Tambuwal’s ally, former governor, Sule Lamido who has seized the territory for his friend.

Tambuwal is also a force to reckon with in Katsina, although Wike’s man, Senator Garba Lado is also doing his best to get some votes. Tambuwal’s train is also strongly stationed in Kaduna and Kebbi but Atiku and Saraki will give him a fight here. In Zamafara, General Aliyu Gusau is supporting Saraki, however, Tambuwal and Atiku can’t be written off in the state.

Despite, Wike’s incursion into the Northwest, a PDP chieftain in the region disclosed that power brokers are tinkering a northern consensus candidate and Tambuwal, it was said stands a higher chance than Atiku as he is seen as very accessible and also enjoys the home advantage factor.

North-East (Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe)

Ordinarily, one would have expected Atiku to get a sigh of relief in Northeast, being his region, however, there are allegations that his formation suffered a setback after he abandoned his political structure following his defeat in the 2019 election. Besides, Atiku has lost plenty of his financial resources having contested for president several times and does not have the wherewithal needed to ignite the excitements desired by his supporters. As such, Northeast states can be marked as a battlefield.

More disturbing for Atiku in the Northeast, is that another aspirant from the region, Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi will be contesting the 118 votes allotted to the zone. Also, former governor of Gombe State, Alhaji Ibrahim Dankwambo is expected to secure the state for Wike; Tambuwal may get Taraba and Borno because of the established relationship he has with the leaders of the states. Nevertheless, Atiku will come out victorious in his home state, Adamawa, and may also extend his weight to get a lead in Yobe State.

North-Central (Benue, FCT, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau)

The Northcentral is a battleground and the votes will be shared between Atiku, Saraki Tambuwal, and Wike. In Benue, Governor Samuel Ortom has reportedly given up on the southern president agenda and may support Saraki, who hails from North Central. Notwithstanding, Wike and Governor, Udom Emmanuel will share votes here, especially because Udom is close with Gabriel Suswam. In Kwara, it is an easy call, all the votes belong to Saraki. In Kogi State, Atiku, Wike, Saraki to share votes. In Nasarawa State, the votes will be shared between Atiku, Tambuwal, and Saraki, the same goes with Niger State. Saraki has an advantage in Plateau State, but Wike will get some votes too. In the Federal Capital Territory, Atiku will get votes but Wike is also on ground, he’s connected with Senator Philip Adudah, representing the FCT.

South-East (Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo)

Wike has the biggest chance of securing votes in Southeast than any other aspirant, but Tambuwal will make a good outing in this region too. In Abia State, Governor Ikpeazu has openly declared his support for Wike while his counterpart, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State is also moving in the same direction. In Anambra, Sen. Stella Odua and Chris Uba are working to ensure a win for Wike

In Imo, the immediate governor of Imo State, Emeka Ihedioha is firmly rooting for Tambuwal’s candidacy while the National Secretary of the PDP, Samuel Anyanwu is backing Wike. In Ebonyi, former Senate President, Anyim Pius Anyim is contesting and will likely get all the delegates in the state on his side.

South-West (Ekiti, Ondo, Osun, Ogun, Oyo and Lagos)

Although Southwest is largely divided, Wike’s alliance with Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, ex-governor of Ekiti, Ayodele Fayose and the gubernatorial aspirant of PDP in Lagos, Olajide Adediran, popularly called ‘Jandor’ puts the Rivers governor on a tripod stand in the region which has 143 delegates, the second-largest bloc after the North-West. Wike will most likely be the preferred candidate of delegates in Ekiti, Lagos, Oyo.

Meanwhile, Saraki’s romance with Senator Ademola Adeleke of Osun State, gives him an edge over Atiku who may also get some votes in the state. In Ondo, Atiku’s man, Eyitayo Jegede will presumably influence higher proportion of delegates to do the bidding of his master while former Ondo state governor, Olusegun Mimiko will other side secure some votes for Wike.

South-South (Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers)

Despite his bright sides in some regions, Wike like Atiku will not be enjoying an easy ride in his ward (South-South) which he calls home. As for Rivers State, all delegates’ in the state will no doubt channel their votes to see a win for Wike; he might record this similar feat in Cross River.

In Akwa Ibom where the sitting governor, Emmanuel Udom is also contesting all votes will be wasted on Udom. Depending on the outcome of the legal tussle over control of Edo PDP, the coin may be tossed in favour of either Saraki who enjoys the support of Governor Godwin Obaseki, or the party’s chairman Dan Orbih. Bayelsa is murky water for Wike as his political foe, Seriake Dickson is working against his candidacy while Governor Diri Diouye is also not on his (Wike) side. Votes here may be split between Saraki and Tambuwal. Delta, is a battleground, votes may be shared between Saraki and Atiku as Governor Ifeanyi Okowa and his predecessor, James Ibori now hold divergent views on the trajectory of who to support.

Emmanuel Adeniyi, writes from Lagos

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Tinubu Orders Arrest, Suspension of Three Perm Secs As ICPC Uncovers Another Fake Govt Agency

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President Bola Tinubu on Friday ordered the immediate arrest and suspension of three federal Permanent Secretaries over their alleged involvement in the operation of another fake agency uncovered by the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC).

ICPC Chairman, Dr Musa Adamu Aliyu, who disclosed this to newsmen after briefing President Tinubu on the latest findings from the commission’s ongoing investigation into fictitious agencies and weaknesses in public sector processes named the affected Permanent Secretaries to include M S Danjuma, Engr Nadungu Gagare, and Richard Pheelangwah.

The Commision’s latest discovery is coming barely few weeks after exposing the fictitious Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council (PFIPC).

According to Aliyu, the newly uncovered entity, operating as National Brands Development and Made-in-Nigeria Special Project Office, had allegedly secured office accommodation within the premises of the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (OSGF) without authorisation from the President.

The discovery, he said, was made during the broader investigation into the PFIPC, which President Tinubu had directed the ICPC to undertake.

The fake agency, according to ICPC boss, was promoted by Prince George Buchi Nwabueze, who allegedly operated under several variations of his name, including George Nathan Nwabueze, Honourable George Buchi Nwabueze, Prince George Buchi Nwabueze and George Buchi Nwabueze.

Aliyu disclosed that the commission was engaging relevant officials in the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation to establish how the purported agency came to operate from government premises and to obtain other vital information required for the investigation.
“I have briefed Mr President comprehensively on these new developments. ICPC will continue with its investigation,” he said.

Following the fresh findings, Aliyu said President Tinubu had directed the immediate arrest of Prince George Buchi Nwabueze, as well as the immediate suspension of the three named permanent secretaries.

The commission is expected to establish the roles played by the suspended officials and other individuals in the emergence and operation of the purported agency.

Aliyu said the latest discovery underscored the need for tighter controls and greater scrutiny of government institutions and internal administrative processes.

He commended President Tinubu for ordering a wider policy audit of federal agencies and government processes, describing the initiative as a proactive measure to strengthen the governance system.

His said: “President Bola Tinubu must be commended for the proactive step of directing the policy audit of MDAs and internal government processes towards strengthening government governance system.”

The latest development has widened the scope of the ICPC’s investigation into the proliferation of fictitious government entities and alleged exploitation of official structures by individuals seeking to create the impression of government authority.
The commission’s investigation into the PFIPC was initiated after the purported agency came under scrutiny, with the President subsequently directing the ICPC to unravel those behind its operations and determine whether public officials facilitated its activities.

With the discovery of another purported agency operating from government premises, the ICPC probe is now expected to examine broader institutional weaknesses that may have enabled unauthorised entities to gain access to federal government facilities and present themselves as legitimate government bodies.

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2027: Atiku Promises to Restore Fuel Subsidy If Elected President

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The African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, has promised to restore the petrol subsidy if he wins the 2027 presidential election.

Atiku made the pledge during an interview on Wednesday while questioning the use of funds he said were saved following the removal of the subsidy.

He said the policy could have been beneficial to Nigerians if the savings had been properly accounted for and invested in areas such as poverty reduction and education.

“I did not oppose the removal of the oil subsidy, but where is the money? Where did it go? It was intended to reduce poverty and help children attend school. Where is the money now? It seems they are just stealing it,” Atiku said in Hausa.

“If elected, I will bring back the oil subsidy, and whoever stole the money must refund it.”

The former vice president said he would also consider the removal of the subsidy if the funds generated from the policy were transparently used to address the country’s development challenges.

“The government successfully removed the subsidy, but we do not know where the money went. If they had used the money for development, to solve security problems, for education, and to create opportunities for the youth, it would be different. If elected, I can remove the subsidy and use the money to do all these properly.”

President Bola Tinubu announced the removal of the petrol subsidy during his inaugural address on May 29, 2023, before assuming office.

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I’m Not Afraid of Anybody, Cardinal Onaiyekan Replies Presidency

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The Catholic Archbishop Emeritus of Abuja, Cardinal John Onaiyekan, has fired back at the Presidency over its criticism of his public account of a meeting between Catholic bishops and President Bola Tinubu, declaring that he did not appear on national television to please the government and was not afraid of anyone.

The 82-year-old cleric said he appeared on Arise News to tell Nigerians what he believed was the truth about the issues discussed during the bishops’ engagement with the President, insisting that neither his age nor criticism from government officials would silence him.

Onaiyekan spoke in a video shared by Symfoni TV on Wednesday, weeks after the Presidency criticised his decision to publicly disclose aspects of the meeting between the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Nigeria (CBCN) and Tinubu.

“I didn’t go to Arise to please the government, or to just please people, but to tell the truth. That’s all I stand for,” Onaiyekan said.

He also dismissed attacks against him on social media, saying he had no reason to engage those criticising him because other Nigerians had already responded on his behalf.

“I don’t have to respond to those attacking me on social media because other Nigerians have spoken on my behalf,” he said.

The cleric went further, declaring that he was not concerned about the possibility of being embarrassed or intimidated because of his advanced age.

“I cannot be embarrassed. I’m 82 years old; nobody can embarrass me. And I’m not afraid of anybody. Nobody, at this stage now, are they going to arrest me, carry me to where?” he declared.

Senior Special Assistant to President Bola Tinubu on Media and Publicity, Temitope Ajayi, who said his criticism of Cardinal John Onaiyekan was not intended to disrespect the cleric.

The controversy that followed a July 28 meeting between Tinubu and a delegation of the CBCN at the State House, Abuja.

The delegation was led by the CBCN President, Archbishop Matthew Man-Oso Ndagoso of Kaduna, and included Onaiyekan, Cardinal Peter Okpaleke, Bishop Matthew Kukah of Sokoto and other senior Catholic clerics.

During the meeting, the bishops raised a number of issues concerning the state of the nation, including economic hardship, insecurity, democracy, preparations for the 2027 elections, religious freedom and the return of mission schools.

Three days later, Onaiyekan appeared on Arise News and publicly recounted aspects of the engagement while speaking about the concerns expressed by the Catholic leadership over the condition of the country.

His comments subsequently attracted criticism from the Presidency. The President’s Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity, Temitope Ajayi, criticised the disclosure of details from the meeting, describing the engagement as a private interaction.

The Presidency’s reaction sparked a debate over the extent to which details of engagements between government and religious leaders should remain confidential, particularly when the discussions concern matters of public interest.

Onaiyekan, however, has maintained that his intervention was neither personal nor intended to embarrass the government. The cleric rejected any suggestion that he had presented a personal opinion during his television appearance.

According to him, the issues he discussed reflected the collective position of the Catholic bishops who participated in the engagement with the President.

“No, mind you, I didn’t talk on my own now. I spoke on behalf of my fellow bishops,” he said.

Onaiyekan disclosed that the bishops had prepared a joint statement containing the issues he subsequently discussed during the television interview.

“We drafted a statement which contained all that I said in the interview. So, all the bishops of Nigeria spoke that way. It was their voice I was echoing,” he stated.

Onaiyekan also emphasised that Catholic bishops remained entitled to speak within their respective dioceses about issues affecting Nigerians.

“I cannot speak on behalf of other religious leaders. Everybody has their own job to do, but many of the other religious leaders have supported us,” Onaiyekan said.

Onaiyekan also broadened his comments beyond the dispute with the Presidency, stressing that the economic difficulties confronting Nigerians could not be dismissed as a disagreement between the government and religious leaders.

He said the widespread poverty and suffering in the country affected everyone.

“When it comes to what is happening to Nigeria, the poverty, the suffering, we are all in the same boat now, abi?” he asked.

The cleric urged Nigerians not to take the country’s remaining space for public criticism and expression for granted.

“And we are still lucky in this Nigeria that we can still talk. We shouldn’t take that for granted. There are many countries in Africa where no bishop dares to talk like we do here,” he said

Meanwhile, Ajayi has sought to draw a line under the controversy, saying his earlier response to Onaiyekan was not intended to disrespect the Catholic cleric or the church.

Ajayi made the clarification during an interview on Arise TV on Thursday, days after criticising Onaiyekan for publicly discussing the details of the closed-door meeting between Tinubu and the CBCN.

The presidential aide said the matter had been resolved and insisted that there was no intention to disparage the respected cleric.

“Well, I think that episode has been closed. Cardinal Onaiyekan is a respected clergy and a statement in his own right,” Ajayi said.

He explained that his intervention was aimed at providing a different interpretation of the account given by the cardinal, rather than questioning his standing in the church or wider society.

“My response to him did not in any way disrespect him or disrespect his standing in the society and the church. He’s one of the leaders of the faith,” Ajayi said, adding that he only sought to offer another perspective on the account of the meeting between the bishops and the President.

“I only tried to provide a different perspective from his own account of the bishop’s encounter with the president, and I think that point has been made. And I think it’s not something we really want to dwell further on,” he said.

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