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Will Kwankwaso Dump Obi?
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By Eric Elezuo
The Nigerian political circle is fast taking shape as the 2027 presidential election draws closer. As a result, permutations regarding who contests for what position, and under what platform is gaining momentum.
From every indication, three political parties have so far shown cause as the main platforms of choice, that is if feelers from the reviving Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its newest bride, former President Goodluck Jonathan, are anything to ignore.
The parties are the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the erstwhile coalition group, African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the freshly introduced Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC). One common denomination attached to these political parties is that they all congresses.
Among the three frontline parties is the NDC, whose life was recently enhanced with the inclusion of two south and north politicians; Mr Peter Obi, who contested under the umbrella of the Labour Party in 2023, and unarguably made serious in-roads even as a newcomer, and Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso, who contested under the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Kwankwaso’s influence was restricted to his native Kano State, but garnered a total of 1.4 million votes across boards. Today, the two politicians are joining forces in what has been termed Obi-Kwankwaso (OK) Movement to attempt to wrestle power from President Bola Tinubu. Both are also bringing with them their vocal movements; the Obidients and the Kwankwasiyya.
But analysts, stakeholders and observers alike have various considered the alliance of the two political heavyweights, wondering if the marriage is of strange bedfellows that may discard each other in the nearest future, or if there is any iota of seriousness among them that can lead to materializing its lofty objectives.
Recall that on Sunday, May 3, the duo of Obi and Kwankwaso dumped the ADC, and joined the NDC, blaming external interference and unending litigation that may hinder aspirants in the party from actualising their aspirations in 2027.
The move comes just nine months after Obi, Kwankwaso and the defacto leader of the coalition, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar joined the ADC. However, from available indices, the coalition quickly became mired in legal battles over party leadership. Obi blamed the new obstacles set before the party were direct consequences of the Tinubu-led Federal Government.
“The same Nigerian state and its agents that created unnecessary crises and hostility within the Labour Party that forced me to leave now appear to be finding their way into the ADC,” Obi had said while being received by the NDC leadership.
It is important to out on record that various voices speaking for Tinubu and federala Government have denied that they have in the quagmire that befell ADC, or has been trying to sabotage opposition parties.
Speaking afterwards, both men called for national unity, greater opportunities for young people, and an end to the infighting that has plagued Nigeria’s opposition.
However, their decision risks upsetting allies within the coalition built around the ADC, which had been positioning itself as the main vehicle for opposition unity.
Some figures within the bloc have privately expressed a sense of betrayal, raising fresh doubts about whether Nigeria’s fragmented opposition can sustain a coordinated challenge against President Tinubu, who celebrated his 74th birthday in March.
Across sectors, platforms and political corners, the influence of the Obi-Kwankwaso combination continues to grow given the political terrain a new agenda for discussion.
However, many stakeholders, among whim the very informed, have said that the union may end as abruptly as it started, stressing that political equilibrium or exigency are mostly not determined by absolutely loyalty, but most of the times by self interest and aggradizement. This, they said may turn out to be the hallmark of Alhaji Kwankwaso.
Some have reasoned that the five years age difference between Obi and Kwankwaso, with Kwankwaso having the upper hand, the academic superior of the former Kano governor, and his lengthier days in his political sojourn may form the criteria for him to refuse whatever arrangement already on the ground, including playing the running mate fiddle to Obi.
But even at that, it is important to note that Barack Obama was 47 years old when he became president, and his Vice, Joe Biden, was 66 years old. So Kwankwaso is not going to set a world record as vice that is older than his principal? Definitely not.
Another group has hinted that Kwankwaso is only oiling his own personal path to 2031, when the coast will be ripe for the candidate of northern extraction to vie for the presidency.
“Consequently, his intention is far from working for Obi’s victory nor Atiku, for neither of the two can conveniently bow out in 2031. The only person permitted by law not to seek election in 2031 is President Tinubu, if he wins the 2027 election. So, conveniently, any ambitious person with eye on the presidency will definitely want Tinubu to win,” a source told The Boss.
Another school of thought has hinted that with the sudden interest of Goodluck Jonathan in the presidency, the path may be cleared for Kwankwaso to deputize for Jonathan instead of Obi. However, as at the time that membership registration register was closed on May 10, 2026, Jonathan was a member of the Turaki-led PDP while Kwankwaso is still in the NDC.
But Kwankwaso in his speech during the inaugural convention of the NDC insisted that the presidency should be zoned to the South, noting that the south should be allowed to complete its eight years tenure. Whether he meant that for his new party, or for the Tinubu administration, the speech explains in details:
Fellow Nigerians,
It is with immense pleasure and a deep sense of fulfilment that I address you today on this historic occasion of the National Convention of our great party, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), in Abuja.
Ladies and Gentlemen, Nigeria stands at a critical crossroads. The world is undergoing a profound geopolitical shift, yet our nation has been caught unprepared, largely because of poor leadership. Instead of positioning Nigeria to seize emerging opportunities, bad governance has left us bearing the brunt of global changes.
We are witnessing a sharp decline in the quality of life. Insecurity has created widows and orphans across the land. Millions have been displaced from their homes. Investments are fleeing, critical infrastructure is neglected, the education system is collapsing, and harsh economic policies have been imposed on citizens without meaningful safety nets or relief.
Yet Nigeria’s history teaches us that in our most challenging moments, visionary alliances have provided the way forward. In 1954, a historic partnership was formed between the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU), led by Aminu Kano and the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC), led by Nnamdi Azikiwe to achieve national unity.
Again, in 1960, against steep odds, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe’s National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC) formed a coalition with the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) to birth our independence.
In the Second Republic, the alliance between Shehu Shagari and Alex Ekwueme under the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) helped restore civilian rule and national unity after years of military dictatorship.
It is therefore with great sense of unity and solidarity, that as a loyal party member, I support the decision to zone the presidential ticket of the NDC to the South, so that it allows the region to complete its turn in producing national leadership.
This represents a true opportunity for true national healing. We shall work in abidance with the party’s agreement to ensure fairness and federal character in all ramifications.
This party shall also ensure to change the way things are done today by prioritising leadership without ethnic jingoism and religious favouritism.
The leadership standard we shall set will therefore restore Nigeria’s dignity and will guarantee that our citizens at home and the diaspora will be treated with respect and dignity.
Lastly, we can only achieve that by continuing to mobilise to register with INEC to vote, and the NDC to belong to this noble cause. Please register, today.
Thank you.
Long Live the Nigeria Democratic Congress!
Long Live the Federal Republic of Nigeria!
From every indication, the dumping of Obi by Kwankwaso may remain a page in a fiction narrative, since it is absolutely impossible for more defections to occur at this time, according to the new Electoral Act 2026.
However, the page of whether he is totally in support of Obi as his principal, still remains unwritten and blank. What is obvious is the two, by present political exigency, may lead the charge as NDC attempt to dislodge Tinubu as president, and also stop Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who may lead the ADC attack, from making any headway.
By May 30 according to Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) table, all flag bearers would have been known and observers are throwing their hats in the ring to predict another 3-horse race, exactly as witnessed in 2023.
What would change would depend heavily on the homework every candidate has done prior to this time, and the alliances created on and off the political circle.
But would Kwankwaso Dump Obi at this time, the answer is likely in the negative. The level of cohesion he is willing to give is what however, that is still contentious about.
Time is almost at hand!
Headlines
Atiku Drags Tinubu to Court over Certificate Forgery, Eligibility to Contest 2027 Election
Atiku, who is the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), personally appeared at the court registry to depose to an affidavit in support of the suit.
The suit was instituted by Atiku and the ADC against President Tinubu, the All Progressives Congress (APC), and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
It is anchored on Sections 137(1)(j), 139(1)(a)(i), and 285(14)(c) of the 1999 Constitution, as well as provisions of the Electoral Act, 2026.
At the heart of the case is Section 137(1)(j), which disqualifies anyone who presents a forged certificate to INEC from contesting for President.
The plaintiffs are asking the court to determine whether Tinubu and the APC should be disqualified from the 2027 election over allegations that the President submitted an NYSC discharge certificate bearing the name “Tinubu Bola Adekunle” to INEC for both the 2023 and 2027 elections.
According to Atiku’s affidavit, the name on the certificate is different from “Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” and the document was not obtained by the President.
Speaking after taking the oath, Atiku said his personal appearance was to show seriousness.
“I came here personally because the issues before the court go to the heart of our Constitution and the integrity of the office of President… I have therefore put my name, my signature and my oath behind the facts we are presenting to the court. Now it is President Tinubu’s turn to answer them,” he said.
The suit also asks INEC to produce Tinubu’s Form CF001 submitted for the 2023 and 2027 elections.
Atiku said he had applied for certified true copies of the form but got no response before filing.
“This is precisely why we have gone to court. We are not asking Nigerians to decide this matter on social media… We are asking the institution holding the records to produce them and the judiciary to examine the evidence and pronounce on it,” Atiku stated.
“If the certificate belongs to Bola Ahmed Tinubu, let that be established before the court. If ‘Tinubu Bola Adekunle’ and ‘Bola Ahmed Tinubu’ are one and the same person for the purpose of that certificate, let the evidence establish it.”
Beyond the certificate, the ADC and Atiku are also challenging aspects of the Electoral Act, 2026, which they argue restrict pre-election challenges to a candidate’s qualification. They contend that no law can override the Constitution.
“Can an Act of the National Assembly be used as a shield against an express provision of the Constitution?… Our position is that the Constitution remains supreme,” Atiku said.
Among the reliefs sought is an order disqualifying Tinubu and the APC from participating in the 2027 presidential election if the court upholds the plaintiffs’ case.
“Nobody should misunderstand what is at stake. Nigerian graduates cannot complete NYSC documentation with one identity and simply ask employers to ignore discrepancies… The Presidency is not an immunity certificate against constitutional scrutiny,” he added.
Atiku further urged INEC to demonstrate neutrality by making the relevant records available to the court.
“The 2027 election must begin with clarity about the qualification of those seeking the Presidency. Nigerians should not be asked to vote first and investigate later,” he said.
Lead counsel, Joseph Onu Silas, Esq., said the legal team was confident the case would help deepen Nigeria’s electoral jurisprudence.
“This is not about privilege, personalities or presidential power. It is about one Constitution and one standard for every Nigerian. Nobody is above the Constitution — not Atiku Abubakar, not Bola Tinubu, and certainly not the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,” Onu said.
Lawyer petitions EU over Tinubu’s qualification, cites ‘subversion of constitution’
Relatedly, a renowned Nigerian lawyer, Kalu Kalu Esq., has submitted a petition to the European Union in Brussels, alleging that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu subverted constitutional order ahead of the 2027 general election.
His remark was shared on Facebook Friday by Paul Ibe, Media Adviser to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
Kalu, who spoke at the European Commission headquarters, said the petition seeks the EU’s intervention to “help restore constitutional democracy in Nigeria.”
He accused President Tinubu of submitting false academic credentials to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, and failing to state the primary and secondary schools he attended.
“Mr President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has suspended the constitutional order in Nigeria because of his false academic credentials, which he submitted to INEC for the 2027 general election and he did not state the primary school and the secondary school he attended,” Kalu said.
The lawyer cited Section 137(1)(j) of the 1999 Constitution, arguing that presenting a false certificate to INEC disqualifies a candidate.
“Section 1371J says if you have presented a false certificate to INEC, the Independent National Electoral Commission, you will not be qualified to run election and he has submitted forged documents, forged certificates to INEC that made him not to be qualified to run for the 2027 general election,” he stated.
Kalu further alleged that because “they have captured all the power in Nigeria,” the President has “imposed himself on Nigeria, thereby subverting the provisions of the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria as amended, which is a mini-coup, a sub-coup against the people of Nigeria.”
He said the purpose of his visit to Brussels was to formally submit the petition to the EU and solicit support for the restoration of constitutional governance in Nigeria.
“Good afternoon all and good afternoon to the whole world. I am here at the European Commission to submit a petition to the European Union concerning the subversion of constitutional order in Nigeria… So, I’m here to submit the petition to the EU to help restore constitutional democracy in Nigeria,” he said.
As of the time of filing this report, the Presidency and INEC have not responded to the allegations.
The European Union-Supported Election Observation Group has deployed 843 observers across Osun State for Saturday’s governorship election, as part of efforts to independently assess the conduct of the poll.
The group, comprising the Centre for Media, Society, the International Press Centre, the Nigerian Women’s Trust Fund, the Kukah Centre and Yiaga Africa, disclosed this in its preliminary statement on the election on Friday in Osogbo, the state capital.
Speaking at the event, the Executive Director of Yiaga Africa, Samson Itodo, said the observers would monitor, document and report on the electoral process in line with the principles of independence, impartiality and non-partisanship.
Itodo said; “the election was of significant national importance as it would provide another opportunity to assess the implementation of provisions of the electoral legal framework and offer INEC, security agencies, electoral stakeholders and the public further insight into preparations ahead of the 2027 general election.”
He said, “the group acknowledged INEC’s declared operational, technological and logistical readiness for the election, including the deployment of election materials and personnel.”
The EU group also noted that INEC had increased the number of Bimodal Voter Accreditation System devices following technical challenges identified during the mock accreditation exercise, with additional devices provided as backup.
On result management, however, the group called for greater clarity on the electronic transmission and backend validation of polling unit results.
It urged INEC to make the result transmission process more transparent and verifiable, including providing clearer information on the backend validation process and the use of electronic result sheets.
The group also called on the Commission to ensure smooth electronic transmission of validated polling unit results and maintain adequate live backup of election data to prevent disruptions during accreditation and counting.
United States President, Donald Trump, says his country is now in “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions with Iran over the reopening of the strategic waterway.
Trump made the claim while speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews, saying the situation with Iran was progressing well despite continued disagreements between both countries.
“Iran is going fine – going just absolutely fine. We totally control the Strait of Hormuz. We have control over it; nobody else, only us. Our navy is unbelievable, and things going great for our country,” Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews.
“I don’t trust Iran. I’m the last person to trust Iran; they’ve lied to me constantly. We have total control over the Hormuz Strait right now; they don’t have control,” he added.
The claim comes as the United States and Iran continue to exchange demands over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, casting further uncertainty over negotiations aimed at ending their five-month conflict.
Although the US has confirmed its involvement in the talks, Iran maintains that it is negotiating directly only with Oman. Tehran has also proposed that the future management of the strategic waterway be shared with Oman.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy route, with about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passing through it before the US-Israel war with Iran began at the end of February.
On Monday, Trump said he would seek compensation from Iran for deaths and injuries associated with conflicts and attacks spanning several decades.
His position followed Iran’s demands for reparations over the war last week, as Tehran said it would not reopen the strait until Washington addresses its political and economic conditions.
