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Will Kwankwaso Dump Obi?
By Eric Elezuo
The Nigerian political circle is fast taking shape as the 2027 presidential election draws closer. As a result, permutations regarding who contests for what position, and under what platform is gaining momentum.
From every indication, three political parties have so far shown cause as the main platforms of choice, that is if feelers from the reviving Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its newest bride, former President Goodluck Jonathan, are anything to ignore.
The parties are the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the erstwhile coalition group, African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the freshly introduced Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC). One common denomination attached to these political parties is that they all congresses.
Among the three frontline parties is the NDC, whose life was recently enhanced with the inclusion of two south and north politicians; Mr Peter Obi, who contested under the umbrella of the Labour Party in 2023, and unarguably made serious in-roads even as a newcomer, and Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso, who contested under the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Kwankwaso’s influence was restricted to his native Kano State, but garnered a total of 1.4 million votes across boards. Today, the two politicians are joining forces in what has been termed Obi-Kwankwaso (OK) Movement to attempt to wrestle power from President Bola Tinubu. Both are also bringing with them their vocal movements; the Obidients and the Kwankwasiyya.
But analysts, stakeholders and observers alike have various considered the alliance of the two political heavyweights, wondering if the marriage is of strange bedfellows that may discard each other in the nearest future, or if there is any iota of seriousness among them that can lead to materializing its lofty objectives.
Recall that on Sunday, May 3, the duo of Obi and Kwankwaso dumped the ADC, and joined the NDC, blaming external interference and unending litigation that may hinder aspirants in the party from actualising their aspirations in 2027.
The move comes just nine months after Obi, Kwankwaso and the defacto leader of the coalition, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar joined the ADC. However, from available indices, the coalition quickly became mired in legal battles over party leadership. Obi blamed the new obstacles set before the party were direct consequences of the Tinubu-led Federal Government.
“The same Nigerian state and its agents that created unnecessary crises and hostility within the Labour Party that forced me to leave now appear to be finding their way into the ADC,” Obi had said while being received by the NDC leadership.
It is important to out on record that various voices speaking for Tinubu and federala Government have denied that they have in the quagmire that befell ADC, or has been trying to sabotage opposition parties.
Speaking afterwards, both men called for national unity, greater opportunities for young people, and an end to the infighting that has plagued Nigeria’s opposition.
However, their decision risks upsetting allies within the coalition built around the ADC, which had been positioning itself as the main vehicle for opposition unity.
Some figures within the bloc have privately expressed a sense of betrayal, raising fresh doubts about whether Nigeria’s fragmented opposition can sustain a coordinated challenge against President Tinubu, who celebrated his 74th birthday in March.
Across sectors, platforms and political corners, the influence of the Obi-Kwankwaso combination continues to grow given the political terrain a new agenda for discussion.
However, many stakeholders, among whim the very informed, have said that the union may end as abruptly as it started, stressing that political equilibrium or exigency are mostly not determined by absolutely loyalty, but most of the times by self interest and aggradizement. This, they said may turn out to be the hallmark of Alhaji Kwankwaso.
Some have reasoned that the five years age difference between Obi and Kwankwaso, with Kwankwaso having the upper hand, the academic superior of the former Kano governor, and his lengthier days in his political sojourn may form the criteria for him to refuse whatever arrangement already on the ground, including playing the running mate fiddle to Obi.
But even at that, it is important to note that Barack Obama was 47 years old when he became president, and his Vice, Joe Biden, was 66 years old. So Kwankwaso is not going to set a world record as vice that is older than his principal? Definitely not.
Another group has hinted that Kwankwaso is only oiling his own personal path to 2031, when the coast will be ripe for the candidate of northern extraction to vie for the presidency.
“Consequently, his intention is far from working for Obi’s victory nor Atiku, for neither of the two can conveniently bow out in 2031. The only person permitted by law not to seek election in 2031 is President Tinubu, if he wins the 2027 election. So, conveniently, any ambitious person with eye on the presidency will definitely want Tinubu to win,” a source told The Boss.
Another school of thought has hinted that with the sudden interest of Goodluck Jonathan in the presidency, the path may be cleared for Kwankwaso to deputize for Jonathan instead of Obi. However, as at the time that membership registration register was closed on May 10, 2026, Jonathan was a member of the Turaki-led PDP while Kwankwaso is still in the NDC.
But Kwankwaso in his speech during the inaugural convention of the NDC insisted that the presidency should be zoned to the South, noting that the south should be allowed to complete its eight years tenure. Whether he meant that for his new party, or for the Tinubu administration, the speech explains in details:
Fellow Nigerians,
It is with immense pleasure and a deep sense of fulfilment that I address you today on this historic occasion of the National Convention of our great party, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), in Abuja.
Ladies and Gentlemen, Nigeria stands at a critical crossroads. The world is undergoing a profound geopolitical shift, yet our nation has been caught unprepared, largely because of poor leadership. Instead of positioning Nigeria to seize emerging opportunities, bad governance has left us bearing the brunt of global changes.
We are witnessing a sharp decline in the quality of life. Insecurity has created widows and orphans across the land. Millions have been displaced from their homes. Investments are fleeing, critical infrastructure is neglected, the education system is collapsing, and harsh economic policies have been imposed on citizens without meaningful safety nets or relief.
Yet Nigeria’s history teaches us that in our most challenging moments, visionary alliances have provided the way forward. In 1954, a historic partnership was formed between the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU), led by Aminu Kano and the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC), led by Nnamdi Azikiwe to achieve national unity.
Again, in 1960, against steep odds, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe’s National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC) formed a coalition with the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) to birth our independence.
In the Second Republic, the alliance between Shehu Shagari and Alex Ekwueme under the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) helped restore civilian rule and national unity after years of military dictatorship.
It is therefore with great sense of unity and solidarity, that as a loyal party member, I support the decision to zone the presidential ticket of the NDC to the South, so that it allows the region to complete its turn in producing national leadership.
This represents a true opportunity for true national healing. We shall work in abidance with the party’s agreement to ensure fairness and federal character in all ramifications.
This party shall also ensure to change the way things are done today by prioritising leadership without ethnic jingoism and religious favouritism.
The leadership standard we shall set will therefore restore Nigeria’s dignity and will guarantee that our citizens at home and the diaspora will be treated with respect and dignity.
Lastly, we can only achieve that by continuing to mobilise to register with INEC to vote, and the NDC to belong to this noble cause. Please register, today.
Thank you.
Long Live the Nigeria Democratic Congress!
Long Live the Federal Republic of Nigeria!
From every indication, the dumping of Obi by Kwankwaso may remain a page in a fiction narrative, since it is absolutely impossible for more defections to occur at this time, according to the new Electoral Act 2026.
However, the page of whether he is totally in support of Obi as his principal, still remains unwritten and blank. What is obvious is the two, by present political exigency, may lead the charge as NDC attempt to dislodge Tinubu as president, and also stop Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who may lead the ADC attack, from making any headway.
By May 30 according to Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) table, all flag bearers would have been known and observers are throwing their hats in the ring to predict another 3-horse race, exactly as witnessed in 2023.
What would change would depend heavily on the homework every candidate has done prior to this time, and the alliances created on and off the political circle.
But would Kwankwaso Dump Obi at this time, the answer is likely in the negative. The level of cohesion he is willing to give is what however, that is still contentious about.
Time is almost at hand!
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has declared the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Biodun Oyebanji, winner of the 2026 Ekiti State governorship election.
Oyebanji secured a landslide victory, polling 319,224 votes to defeat his closest challenger, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Dr. Wole Oluyede, who garnered 40,543 votes. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, Dare Bejide, came a distant third with 12,872 votes.
The election, held across all 16 local government areas of the state, was overshadowed by reports of irregularities and widespread allegations of vote buying, drawing strong condemnation from observers.
The official results were announced on Sunday morning by the Chief Returning Officer, Professor Adenike Oladiji, who declared Oyebanji duly elected after meeting the constitutional requirements.
In her declaration, Professor Oladiji stated: “I, Professor Adenike Oladiji, hereby certify that I am the Returning Officer for the Ekiti State Governorship Election held on June 20, 2026, and that the election was conducted in compliance with the provisions of the law. Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji of the All Progressives Congress, having satisfied the requirements of the law and scored the highest number of valid votes cast, is hereby declared the winner and returned elected.”
Source: Reuters
Arise Television anchor, Rufai Oseni, has alleged that there may be attempts to prevent key opposition figures, including Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, from appearing on the ballot for the 2027 general elections.
Oseni’s remark followed a Federal High Court judgment ordering the de-registration of some political parties.
Justice Peter Lifu of the Federal High Court in Abuja, on Monday, ordered the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to deregister the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Accord Party (AP), Action Peoples’ Party (APP), Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), and Action Alliance Party (AAP) over alleged constitutional breaches.
The judgment arose from a lawsuit filed by the Incorporated Trustees of the National Forum of Former Legislators (NFFL), which argued that the affected parties failed to meet constitutional and statutory electoral performance requirements necessary for continued recognition as political parties.
Justice Lifu subsequently barred INEC from recognising the affected parties, accepting nominations from them or permitting them to participate in activities related to the 2027 general elections.
The ruling, if upheld, could affect the political ambitions of several politicians, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is the ADC presidential flag-bearer, and Osun State governor Ademola Adeleke, who is seeking re-election on the platform of the Accord Party.
But speaking on Arise TV’s Morning Show on Tuesday, Oseni described the court ruling as a “test” of public reaction, warning that more actions could follow ahead of the next general election.
According to him, opposition parties such as the African Democratic Congress, ADC, and the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, should be cautious, claiming that efforts could be made to stop major figures from participating in the election.
Oseni argued that the judgment was part of a broader process aimed at shaping the political landscape ahead of 2027.
He maintained that the ruling came despite some of the affected parties having recorded electoral victories in recent elections.
He warned that Nigerians must remain vigilant to safeguard the country’s democracy, stressing the need for judicial reforms alongside efforts to tackle insecurity.
Oseni said: “NDC, ADC should be careful because there will be attempt, and this is me predicting now, to ensure that Obi, Atiku and other big contenders are not on the ballot.
“This that you saw yesterday is just a test. This is not the real place where the whole thing is going. This is me predicting now.
“You know before you have a show you test the microphone. They want to see the reactions of Nigerians. More is still coming.
“You can see how they carry a judgement when ADC won two House of Representatives seats in Kogi, one Kogi House of Assembly seat, APP one chairmanship seat in Jigawa, Zenith Labour party won several seats in Abia, but they still went ahead and issued judgement for deregistration after the Court of Appeal, a higher court, said it should stay on that.
“If we want to deal with this judicial rascality, can I tell you something? The judge that gave this judgment, nothing will happen to him. Nothing on this earth. They are just coming.
“And who is leading this group? Gbajabiamila. Have you forgotten what Gbajabiamila said on Hon Ajibade’s birthday? So they are just coming. This one is just a test. The next one they will do is the NDC.
“With the way they’re going, if Nigerians don’t shine their eyes when they will finally have this election, you will not have the major contenders in the ballot. This thing they have just done is to test reactions from Nigerians.
“I saw this thing coming. You know we are going into an election in which Atiku Abubakar is the only major candidate from the North. It’s not like the last one you have Kwankwaso that can split the Kano votes. And you have Peter Obi and general consensus that a lot of people are in abject penury, insecurity is raging hard.
“This is the beginning of many things. They are just testing the microphone. It’s engineered. More is coming. Nigerians, it is you that will save your democracy. Judicial reforms have become so important as insecurity in Nigeria.”
