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Collapse of Foreign Investment As Nigeria’s Next Envisaged Crisis

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By Joel Popoola

Nigeria’s population is exploding while its economy is shrinking. Which is why financial figures released this week make such scary reading.

Forecasts from the International Monetary Fund predict economic growth in Nigeria to be just a third of the global figure for 2021.

And statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics showed a 61% year-on-year decline in foreign money flowing in Nigeria.

This means fewer and fewer international customers for Nigerian businesses, and crucially, fewer and fewer investment capital for Nigerian companies.

International businesses and investors spent $2.8bn in Nigeria in the first half of 2021. In the first half of 2020 this figure was $7.2bn.

Of these figures, foreign direct investment – overseas companies setting up in Nigeria – fell 36% year on year.

The World Bank has also estimated that foreign investment in Nigeria is down 80% in recent times. Foreign portfolio investments – the purchase of Nigerian securities or other assets fell from $4.7bn to $1.5bn in a single year – a drop of nearly 70%.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic would have of course played a part, with many businesses across the globe practically mothballed for months.

But there is long-term systemic reason for the collapse of foreign investment in our nation. Nigeria does not appear to be a safe investment.

But we should be an unbeatable one.

In population terms alone, we offer overseas organisations one of the largest domestic markets on earth.

Then, there is our vast human capital.

We have ambition: Our young people are the most likely in all of Africa to have considered running for elected office.

We are entrepreneurial: 71% of our young people have an idea for a business.
We are innovative, having been described as “Africa’s most attractive tech hub for investors” and home to the most start-ups in Africa.

Just last year, consultants McKinsey reported that Nigeria’s Fintech sector has raised more than $600 million in funding between 2014 and 2019.

But if that funding dries up, how are the companies of tomorrow supposed to take their businesses to the next level, growing their international sales, workforces and – yes government – tax bills, which in turn will pay for better public health, education and infrastructure.

This investment is the lifeblood our future economy. But investors are increasingly looking elsewhere.

For a reason why there are doing that, we need look only to the recent research from pressure group YIAGA, who have suggested an astonishing $582bn has been lost to corruption in our nation since independence.

Investors will not see a return on their investment when it is quite clear how much of it is likely to end up in the back pockets of the duplicitous, the dodgy and the dishonest.

We need to build international trust in Nigeria. And that battle begins at home.
At the digital democracy campaign I lead we are looking to rebuild the relationship between government and governed using the power of social media.

We have created a free smartphone app called Rate Your Leader to bring elected officials closer to the people who elect them.

Rate Your Leader which connects verified political figures with verified voters in the divisions they serve, giving local people the kind of direct personal access only previous granted to the privileged few like lobbyists and party donors.

If you want to raise something with your local leader, you can. If you want to ask them a question, you can. If you want to put forward an idea to make your community better, you can.

Apps like Rate Your Leader show how transparent, responsive and accessible political leaders can be, which builds wider trust in our political class and political system. Rate Your Leader also lets users rate local elected officials for openness and responsiveness, rewarding our most transparent and accessible politicians and highlighting their qualities to other voters.

The app also gives politicians a real-time insight into what matters most to the people who elect them – allowing them to take action, make changes and win the respect, trust and affection of the people their serve.

We are a nation held back by the notion that everyone else is only out for themselves – from the very top of the country down. This isn’t true.

But the idea is spreading to other nations too. And that is something that our economy simply cannot afford.

Joel Popoola is a Nigerian tech entrepreneur and digital democracy campaigner. He is also the creator of the Rate Your Leader app.

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ADC Unveils Presidential Campaign Council, Names Ibrahim-Imam As Chairman, Dele Momodu As Head, Media/Publicity

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The African Democratic Congress (ADC), has unveiled its Presidential Campaign Council for the 2027 election, describing the structure as “lean” in response to the economic realities facing Nigerians.

The council, approved by the party’s presidential candidate, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, will be chaired by Kashim Ibrahim-Imam, with former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, serving as Deputy Chairman.

Senator Austin Akobundu will serve as Director-General and Campaign Manager, with responsibility for translating the campaign’s strategy into coordinated action.

The council will have six Deputy Directors-General overseeing various operational directorates, while 30 directors have been assigned specific responsibilities.

In a statement on Thursday, Phrank Shaibu, Director of Strategic Communication of the ADC Presidential Campaign Council and Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication to Atiku, said the structure was deliberately kept “lean” to reflect the economic circumstances confronting Nigerians.

“When families are struggling with food prices, transport costs and shrinking incomes, a campaign asking for their trust must show discipline in how it operates,” Shaibu said.

Dele Momodu will head the Media and Communications Directorate, while Dino Melaye will lead Contact and Mobilisation.

Mohammed Hayatudeen will chair the Policy Team, working with Professor Mohammed Sagagi and other members, including Professor Kingsley Moghalu, while Chief John Oyegun will chair the Campaign Advisory Board.

Shaibu said the campaign structure was designed to be focused on work, with clearly defined responsibilities for every directorate and assignment for every director.

“Our measure of success will be how clearly we address the cost of living, unemployment, insecurity and declining purchasing power—and how effectively we organise to make Nigeria affordable again,” he said.

The council is expected to coordinate the ADC’s presidential campaign activities ahead of the 2027 general election.

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Tinubu Extends Europe Vacation, Due Back at Weekend

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President Bola Tinubu has extended his “working vacation” in Europe by a few days and is expected to return to Nigeria at the weekend, the Presidency said on Monday.

The announcement came as Vice President Kashim Shettima represents the President at the 81st United Nations General Assembly in New York, where he is scheduled to deliver Nigeria’s national statement.

Tinubu departed Nigeria on August 30 to begin his working vacation in London. After spending one week in the United Kingdom, he proceeded to Paris, France, where he held meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and businessman Vincent Bolloré.

Bolloré’s media interests include Canal+, MultiChoice and Universal Music Group.

A statement signed on Monday by Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, said Tinubu has remains in touch with developments at home and continued to direct the affairs of government despite being away from Nigeria.

One of the major decisions taken by the President during the period was his directive for an independent investigation into the deaths of 37 suspected illegal miners in Minna following their detention by the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps.

The deaths had raised concerns over the circumstances surrounding the detention and treatment of the miners, prompting the President to order an independent probe.

Tinubu’s decision to extend his stay abroad means he will not personally attend the opening of the high-level segment of the UN General Assembly in New York. Shettima, who departed Abuja on September 20, is representing the President at the global gathering and will present Nigeria’s national statement.

The Presidency said the Vice President’s representation was part of the arrangements for Tinubu’s absence from the country.

With Shettima now in New York, the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, will continue to represent the President at some official functions.

The Presidency said Tinubu had also delegated the Vice President to represent him at official functions while he was away, while Akume had similarly stepped in at other engagements.

The President’s extended stay in Europe also comes amid increased political activities at home ahead of the 2027 general elections.

According to the Presidency, the Director-General of the Presidential Campaign Council, Senator Abubakar Yari, has been leading notable leaders of the ruling party in consultations with prominent traditional rulers across the country.

The consultations form part of ongoing political engagements as the administration moves towards the next electoral cycle.

The Presidency also reacted strongly to criticism over Tinubu’s decision not to attend the UN General Assembly personally.

It described as irresponsible what it called a “baseless insinuation” by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and a United States-based lobbying firm headed by an ex-convict regarding the President’s non-attendance at the global gathering.

The Presidency maintained that Nigeria would be adequately represented by Shettima, who will deliver the country’s national statement.

Tinubu’s latest trip began as an official working vacation, during which the President combined his leave with selected diplomatic, business and governmental engagements.

His meeting with Macron in Paris provided an opportunity for discussions on bilateral relations, while his engagement with Bolloré focused on business and investment interests involving Nigeria.

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Let Nigerians Breathe, Reduce Fuel Price, Atiku Tells Tinubu

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Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has urged President Bola Tinubu to take immediate steps to reduce the cost of petrol, saying Nigerians are struggling with the combined impact of high energy, transportation and food prices.

Atiku made the call on Friday in Abuja during a press briefing on fuel prices, palliatives and the rising cost of living. His comments came amid renewed concerns over the effect of higher petrol prices on households and businesses.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate said the removal of petrol subsidy in May 2023 placed additional pressure on families, workers, farmers and businesses.

He said the effect of higher petrol prices was not limited to motorists, as increased transportation and logistics costs had also pushed up the prices of food and other essential goods.

“When government makes energy expensive, it makes life expensive,” Atiku said.

The former vice president recalled that he had previously called for government intervention to reduce petrol prices, but said Tinubu had dismissed the proposal as showing “serious ignorance” of governance and the economy.

Atiku questioned whether the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), petroleum marketers, manufacturers and ordinary Nigerians who had raised concerns about rising costs could all be described as ignorant.

“When workers, producers, marketers and ordinary families are all raising the alarm, government must listen,” he said.

He said the government should be prepared to review its policies when their consequences become difficult for citizens to bear, adding that rising production costs were putting further pressure on manufacturers while families were finding it harder to afford basic goods.

Atiku also argued that government revenue and GDP figures did not necessarily reflect the economic reality facing ordinary Nigerians.

“If government receives more Naira while the citizen’s naira buys less food, less fuel, less electricity and less transportation, then bigger government revenues mean little to the family struggling to survive,” he said.

The ADC candidate urged Tinubu to use the remaining eight months of his first term to reduce the burden on Nigerians and consider any measure capable of lowering petrol prices, even if the proposal came from a political opponent.

“What matters to me is that Nigerians pay less,” Atiku said. “A sensible idea does not become a bad idea because it came from your opponent.”

He also offered to make his policy framework available to the Tinubu administration, saying Nigerians should not have to wait for a new government before benefiting from policies that could provide relief.

“If you need the framework, I will provide it. Implement it under your government. Give it whatever name you choose. Take the credit,” he said.

“I ask for only one thing: Let Nigerians breathe.”

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